Sea level will rise fast even if we limit global warming to 1.5°C
New ScientistMAY 17
Study: Ice Sheet Melt Unstoppable Even at 1.5°C Climate Target
Above: Greenland ice sheet. Image copyright: Unsplash
The Spin
Climate-concerned narrative
The current global climate target of +1.5°C is dangerously inadequate for protecting coastal communities. Today's ice loss far exceeds previous model predictions, indicating the world is already witnessing the unfolding of worst-case scenarios. Without immediate and drastic action to reduce temperatures below current levels, coastal cities face inevitable inundation and massive population displacement.
Climate-skeptic narrative
Climate alarmism of swamped coastlines is an ongoing trope that causes more harm than good. Previous reports that sea level rise could inundate over 180 million people have been debunked as being off by a factor of 600. Most of all, these studies don't factor in how human societies can adapt and thrive in any new coastal environments that could result if sea level rise does in fact occur.
Narrative C
Focusing on "tipping points" can distract from the fact that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters significantly. The 1.5°C target remains crucial as it would still allow more time for adaptation and reduce the rate of sea level rise compared to higher temperature scenarios. Continued technological and infrastructure development could help coastal communities adapt to moderate rises.