Reports: IS Attempts Comeback in Middle East

Reports: IS Attempts Comeback in Middle East
Above: A de-mining worker holds a diffused IED, allegedly planted by the Islamic State, on June 2, 2025, in Raqqa, Syria. Image copyright: Ed Ram/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

With Assad's dictatorship gone, it's unsurprising that IS is resurging in the Middle East, exploiting chaos in Syria and neighboring countries. Factionalized fighting, weakened governance, and reduced support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah have created a vacuum, allowing IS sleeper cells to intensify attacks. Regional and Western powers must act swiftly, cooperating with Syria's transitional government and lifting sanctions to stabilize the region.

Establishment-critical narrative

Israel and its Western allies, not Assad, fueled IS's rise and resurgence. By arming rebel factions, U.S. weapons fell into the hands of extremist groups that now rule the country. Furthermore, destroying Syria through sanctions and strikes created a power vacuum for IS to exploit. Assad's secular rule countered extremism, but Israel's post-Assad attacks enable chaos, allowing IS to regroup. Regional stability demands recognizing Israel's role in fostering, not fighting, IS.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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