US Adds 143K Jobs in January

US Adds 143K Jobs in January
Above: Maplewood, Minnesota. Metro Transit hiring drivers with the possibility to make $30.00 an hour.  Image copyright:  Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The US economy added 143K non-farm payrolls in January, falling short of the 170K jobs economists had predicted, marking the weakest January total since 2016 and the slowest start to a year for overall job growth since before the COVID pandemic.

  • The unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%, beating estimates of 4.1%, while average hourly wages increased 4.1% year-over-year to $35.87, surpassing forecasts that predicted a 3.8% increase to $35.80.

  • The government revised previous employment figures upward, reporting an additional 100K jobs added in November and December than initially reported.

The Spin

Narrative A

This recent jobs report shows a nuanced look at the US economy. While the addition of 143K jobs may be below expectations, it comes alongside a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4%. Together, these suggest a resilient labor market.

Narrative B

The slowdown in job growth raises concerns about an economic downturn. New jobs are mainly in lower-paying, less stable sectors like government, health care, and retail, which could hinder sustained growth. A decline in the average workweek also signals potential weaknesses in the labor market. This report was fairly pessimistic.

Metaculus Prediction

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