Japan's Birth Rate Falls Below 700,000 for the First Time

Japan's Birth Rate Falls Below 700,000 for the First Time
Above: Customers browse kids clothes at a Toys "R" Us/Babies "R" Us store inside the Aeon Mall Kyoto shopping mall, operated by Aeon Mall Co., in Kyoto, Japan, on Friday, Oct. 20, 2023.  Image copyright: Kiyoshi Ota/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Japan's demographic crisis demands immediate government intervention through comprehensive family support policies. The steep decline in births poses a threat to the nation's economic sustainability and social security system, necessitating bold measures such as expanded childcare subsidies and improved work-life balance initiatives.

Narrative B

Cultural and economic factors beyond government control are driving Japan's decline in birth rates. Young people face bleak job prospects, high living costs, and a gender-biased corporate culture that particularly burdens women, making traditional policy solutions insufficient to address deeper societal issues.

Metaculus Prediction


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