Japan's Birth Rate Falls to Lowest in 125 Years

Japan's Birth Rate Falls to Lowest in 125 Years
Above: A man walks with a girl along a sidewalk in Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on Sept. 18, 2018. Image copyright: Akio Kon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Behind Japan's declining rates of childbirth is a decline in marriage rates stemming from COVID. Therefore, the government has implemented measures to improve job opportunities, close the gender gap, and spur young people to marry and have children. These measures show promise in turning the tide.

Narrative B

The declining birth rate stems from fundamental policy failures and outdated assumptions about work, family, and social structure. Financial incentives are proving insufficient to address deeper cultural shifts and economic pressures that make raising children unattractive for young Japanese couples.

Metaculus Prediction


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