Japan's Child Population Hits Record Low for 44th Straight Year

Japan's Child Population Hits Record Low for 44th Straight Year
Above: A young man runs past an elderly couple taking a health walk early in the morning on Oct. 1, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan.  Image copyright: David Mareuil/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Japan stands at the precipice of demographic catastrophe — a nation literally vanishing before our eyes. With births plummeting to record lows and deaths doubling births, this once-mighty economic power faces the unthinkable — losing two-thirds of its population by century's end, threatening not just prosperity but Japan's very existence as a nation.

Narrative B

Japan's demographic "crisis" masks a profound liberation. While demographic alarmists lament a vanishing nation, young Japanese inherit unprecedented bargaining power — becoming a scarce resource in an economy desperate for workers. The future may offer not catastrophe but emancipation, where scarcity grants freedom to demand better conditions and pursue bolder dreams.

Metaculus Prediction


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