Japan's Ruling Coalition Loses Upper House Majority

Japan's Ruling Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Above: Shigeru Ishiba at Liberal Democratic Party headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025. Image copyright: STR/JIJI Press/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Opposition narrative

This election represents a clear rejection of failed economic policies that have left ordinary Japanese struggling with inflation while the government prioritizes fiscal austerity over relief. The LDP's stubborn opposition to tax cuts shows they're out of touch with voters who desperately need help with rising costs. Populist parties gained ground because they actually listened to concerns about economic hardship and immigration pressures.

Pro-government narrative

Political instability at this critical moment poses a significant threat to Japan's ability to navigate crucial trade negotiations with the United States and maintain economic stability. The rise of extremist parties like Sanseito with their divisive anti-foreigner rhetoric represents a dangerous shift that could undermine Japan's international relationships and democratic values. Responsible governance requires continuity, not populist pandering.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO