Madagascar Military Seizes Power as President Flees Country
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Madagascar's military coup represents a dangerous power grab by elite forces exploiting legitimate youth protests. The CAPSAT unit, which controls army logistics and personnel, has illegally seized control while President Rajoelina fled the country. This threatens to perpetuate Madagascar's cycle of weak institutions dominated by military intervention for elite interests rather than genuine democratic reform.
Government-critical narrative
The military’s takeover in Madagascar comes at a critical moment. With parliament dissolved and political gridlock in a stalemate, the generals present themselves as bearers of decisive change. Their arrival promises stability over chaos, order over corruption — and offers citizens reprieve from ineffective governance. In the context of entrenched dysfunction, this coup is a bold restoration attempt, not usurpation.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
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