Madagascar: President Flees Country as Military Turns Against Him

Madagascar: President Flees Country as Military Turns Against Him
Above: A lone resident walks across the deserted Place du 13 Mai after curfew in Antananarivo, Madagascar on Oct. 13, 2025. Image copyright: Luis Tato/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

An illegal coup attempt is underway forcing Rajoelina to flee the country, as rogue military units abandon their duty and join violent protesters threatening national stability. Elite forces are coordinating an armed takeover while the president maintains control and offers dialogue to resolve the crisis peacefully. The military breakdown endangers Madagascar's democratic institutions and threatens to plunge the nation into chaos.

Government-critical narrative

Rajoelina's fleeing the country is cause for hope for a nation on the brink of collapse. With protests mounting and soldiers refusing to act, his resignation could prevent bloodshed and give Madagascar a chance for a fresh start. Rather than clinging to power, his escape opens the door for a transitional government, renewed national dialogue and the prospect of stability that has long been elusive.

Metaculus Prediction


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.16.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.16.0