NASA Upgrades, Then Lowers Odds Of Asteroid Hitting Earth — Here’s Why
Forbes1 day ago
The odds have been slashed that asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered by infrastructure in Chile on Dec. 27, 2024 and measuring between 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide will hit Earth, after it initially sparked concern of a potential collision with our planet in December 2032.
The impact probability reached its peak at 3.1% on Feb. 18, 2025, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size, before dramatically decreasing to 1.5% and then further dropping to 0.28% following new observations.
The asteroid's potential impact corridor spans across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, meaning it could potentially affect over 100M people in these regions.
The continuous refinement of orbital calculations through additional observations typically leads to elimination of impact risk, as demonstrated by previous cases, and the current trajectory suggests the asteroid will likely miss Earth completely, following the pattern of many initially concerning space objects.
The asteroid poses a legitimate threat requiring ongoing monitoring, as its size could cause regional destruction, and the limited observation window until 2028 creates uncertainty about its exact trajectory, making it crucial to maintain vigilant tracking and preparation measures.