When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
MetaculusDEC 22 2024
New Bat Virus Similar to COVID Found in China
Above: A "horseshoe bat" (Rhinolophidae) is seen in the waiting area for vaccination against the coronavirus. Image copyright: Matthias Balk/Contributor/picture alliance via Getty Images
The Facts
Chinese researchers, led by virologist Shi Zhengli, have identified a new bat coronavirus named HKU5-CoV-2. This virus belongs to the merbecovirus subgenus and was initially detected in Japanese pipistrelle bats in Hong Kong.
The newly discovered virus uses the same human receptor (ACE2) as SARS-CoV-2 to enter cells, and laboratory experiments have shown it can infect human cells with high ACE2 levels in test tubes and models of human intestines and airways.
The study found that HKU5-CoV-2 can bind to ACE2 receptors in multiple species, increasing its potential for cross-species transmission, though its binding efficiency is significantly lower than that of SARS-CoV-2.
The Spin
Narrative A
The risk of HKU5-CoV-2 causing a pandemic shouldn't be exaggerated, as its binding efficiency is significantly lower than SARS-CoV-2. Compared to 2019, there is substantial population immunity to similar viruses. The virus' limited ability to spread between humans makes it far less threatening than COVID.
Narrative B
The discovery of another potentially dangerous coronavirus in bats raises serious concerns about future pandemic risks and requires immediate attention for monitoring and preparedness. The virus' ability to infect multiple species could facilitate its evolution into a more dangerous pathogen.