When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
MetaculusDEC 29 2024
New Bat Virus Similar to COVID Found in China
Above: A "horseshoe bat" (Rhinolophidae) is seen in the waiting area for vaccination against the coronavirus. Image copyright: Matthias Balk/Contributor/picture alliance via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The risk of HKU5-CoV-2 causing a pandemic shouldn't be exaggerated, as its binding efficiency is significantly lower than SARS-CoV-2. Compared to 2019, there is substantial population immunity to similar viruses. The virus' limited ability to spread between humans makes it far less threatening than COVID.
Narrative B
The discovery of another potentially dangerous coronavirus in bats raises serious concerns about future pandemic risks and requires immediate attention for monitoring and preparedness. The virus' ability to infect multiple species could facilitate its evolution into a more dangerous pathogen.