Daniel Noboa Wins Reelection in Ecuador

Daniel Noboa Wins Reelection in Ecuador
Above: Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa speaks during a rally in Olón after the presidential runoff on April 13, 2025. Image copyright: Vicente Gaibor/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Right narrative

This election consolidates Ecuador as a democratic example in Latin America, and its results demonstrate overwhelming public support for Noboa's tough-on-crime agenda and economic modernization plans. It's clear that voters want a path of dialogue, progress, and stability instead of a return to leftist populism and polarization.

Left narrative

Since the right wing took over the country eight years ago, Ecuador has not had a free and fair election. This time is no different, as systematic fraud — including manipulation of voting records, military intimidation, and last-minute changes in polling locations — marred the runoff vote. It's no wonder that González obtained fewer votes now than in the first round.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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