Turkey: PKK Declares Cease-Fire After 40 Years of Conflict

Turkey: PKK Declares Cease-Fire After 40 Years of Conflict
Above: A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of Abdullah Ocalan on Feb. 27, 2025. Image copyright: Delil Souleiman/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The peace initiative is a strategic opportunity to end decades of conflict, strengthen regional stability, and expand democratic space in Turkey, while potentially securing Kurdish cultural and political rights. Additionally, peace with Öcalan could help Ankara secure its interests in Damascus and give Erdoğan a chance to extend his power domestically.

Narrative B

The disarmament process requires concrete guarantees to succeed, including Öcalan's release, improved prison conditions, and a secure negotiation environment. While there is a universal desire for peace, it's important to recognize that negotiating with a group designated as a terrorist organization will not tear down the wall of terror.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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