Polish Democracy in 2030
MetaculusAPR 2022
Poland Defies EU Migration Pact, Refuses Mandatory Quotas
Above: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (R) and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hold a joint press conference after a College of Commissioners meeting with Polish cabinet members in Gdansk on Feb. 7, 2025. Image copyright: Bartosz Banka/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Poland cannot accept additional migration burdens as it already shoulders the extraordinary responsibility of hosting numerous Ukrainian refugees, as well as facing hybrid threats on its eastern border with Belarus, making its situation uniquely challenging and deserving of special consideration.
Narrative B
The Migration Pact is legally binding for all 27 member states regardless of their current circumstances, and the system offers flexibility through various contribution options, making it unnecessary to grant complete exemptions to any member state.