Portugal set for snap general election as PM faces confidence vote
Guardian1 day ago
Portugal Set for Third Election as PM Faces Confidence Vote
Above: Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro answers deputies' questions during the Portuguese Parliament plenary session to debate a PCP motion of censure against the government on March 5, 2025, in Lisbon, Portugal. Image copyright: Horacio Villalobos/Contributor/Corbis News via Getty Images
The Facts
Portugal's minority government faces potential collapse as parliament prepares to vote on a confidence motion on Tuesday, with opposition parties planning to vote against Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's center-right administration.
The controversy centers around Montenegro's family-owned consultancy firm Spinumviva, which receives monthly payments of €4.5K ($4.9K) from Solverde, a casino and hotel operator holding government concessions, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest.
Recent polls show the ruling Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition polling around 30%-34%, the Socialist Party (PS) at 29%-31%, and the right-wing Chega party with 14%-18% support. Another poll showed that 65% wanted new elections and 36% wanted to replace Montenegro.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite corruption allegations, the AD has governed Portugal effectively, delivering economic growth, budget surpluses, and reduced debt. The Spinumviva inquiry also lacks evidence, and Montenegro's coalition maintains public support. Ironically, ex-Socialist Prime Minister António Costa, who resigned over Operation Influencer, still faces corruption charges tied to a USB drive scandal, underscoring the AD's relative stability.
Left narrative
The AD's minority rule has been a disaster, weakening Portugal's democracy and fueling Chega's exponential rise by exploiting economic woes and nostalgia for the early 20th-century Salazar era. Corruption scandals and austerity have eroded trust in the liberal-conservative establishment, proving it incapable of stability. True left-wing policies are needed to counter the far-right and restore social justice.
Right narrative
The AD's narrow 2024 win stemmed from fear of a Socialist resurgence, not support for their rule. Their corruption scandals, like the Twins Affair and Montenegro's company dealings, expose their failures, boosting Chega's anti-establishment appeal. Rising violent crime has also fueled public demand to halt mass migration, a Chega priority, suggesting their no-confidence vote could further erode AD’s grip and strengthen the nationalists.