Politics

Portugal: Ruling Alliance Wins Election, Misses Majority

MAY 18 2025·Updated MAY 19 2025

Story

Above: Luís Montenegro arrives to give a victory speech at the electoral night headquarters in Lisbon on May 18, 2025. Image credit: Horacio Villalobos/Contributor/Corbis via Getty Images

The Facts

Portugal's incumbent Aliança Democrática remained the largest force, with at least 89 seats, in the country's 230-member National Assembly, after securing almost one-third of the votes in a snap general election on Sunday, and is set to continue in office as a minority government.
ap
Legislativas 2025
Bloomberg.com
With only votes from abroad — less than 0.8% of the total — yet to be counted, the Socialists and the Chega! are tied for second place with at least 58 seats. Iniciativa Liberal and the Greens-affiliated Livre collected at least nine and six seats, respectively.
Legislativas 2025
Europe Elects
Bloomberg.com
The Socialists suffered their worst electoral defeat since 1987, losing 20 seats in parliament and risking becoming only the third-largest force if results from voters abroad mirror those from the last election. Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigned on Sunday after the official results.
BBC News
Politico
Breitbart
Meanwhile, Chega! has grown in every election since its foundation, jumping from 1.3% of the vote in 2019 to more than 22% in 2025. It is running on a tough-on-crime and immigration platform amid disaffection with traditional parties.
ap
France 24
Breitbart
Even if Prime Minister Luís Montenegro reaches a governing deal with the Iniciativa Liberal, his minority government would only be able to reach a majority to pass legislation with support from Chega! — which he says is "not suited to governing" — or from the Socialists, with whom relations have soured over the past year.
France 24
Politico
Fox 59
The third general election in three years in Portugal comes as Montenegro failed to win a confidence vote in March after Chega! and the Communists requested motions of censure amid mounting concerns over potential conflicts of interest in dealings of his family's consulting firm, Spinumviva.
EuroNews
Reuters
Fox 59

Sources Split

LEFT

CENTER

RIGHT

ESTAB
CRIT

CENTER

PRO
ESTAB

The Spin

Narrative A

It's no wonder that Chega! has grown more popular election after election. Portuguese voters have realized that establishment parties are either unwilling to or unable to address their concerns, as uncontrolled migration drives housing prices up and now threatens Portugal's very existence. Chega! is the only party that can get the job done. It's time to let it govern the country.

The European Conservative

Narrative B

Key takeaways from this snap election include the Socialists' fiasco and the rise of Chega!, but it's inaccurate to consider the latter the big winner of the night. After all, Montenegro's Aliança Democrática won nine seats more than in the previous vote after an explicit promise not to work with the far-right populists, showing that the nation has not fallen for insinuations and intrigues against him.