Putin Vows to Seize Ukraine's Donbas 'By Force of Arms'

Is Russia seizing territory through illegal annexation and stalling tactics, or reclaiming regions that rejected Ukrainian rule?
Putin Vows to Seize Ukraine's Donbas 'By Force of Arms'
Above: Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025. Image credit: Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Putin's ultimatum exposes Russia's refusal to negotiate in good faith, demanding Ukraine surrender territory Moscow failed to capture militarily while continuing deadly strikes on civilians. The Kremlin's maximalist territorial demands contradict its claims of progress, revealing peace talks have hit insurmountable red lines as Russia controls less than 20% of Ukraine yet insists on informal recognition of illegal annexations.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia is simply reclaiming its own territory in Donbas after residents voted for independence in 2022 referendums, and the devastating conflict was entirely avoidable if Ukraine had withdrawn troops as requested. Kyiv's refusal to accept reality has led to inevitable military losses as Ukrainian forces crumble under sustained pressure, proving the original decision to fight was a catastrophic mistake.

Cynical narrative

Russia cannot swiftly seize the Donetsk region — not because Moscow lacks ambition, but because Ukrainian forces continue to hold key defensive positions. Only a Ukrainian withdrawal could hand Donetsk to Russia — contradicting Moscow's claims of inevitable victory if fighting continues. Demanding all of Donbas in peace talks risks 4.5 more years of carnage and 2 million casualties. Ukraine's fortified lines hold firm, turning imperial ambition into an endless quagmire.

Establishment-critical narrative

Caught between the Russian Federation's violent expansion and the West's coercive economic-political influence, Ukraine finds itself trapped in a modern imperial tug-of-war. The invasion by Russia exposes raw imperial violence, while Western "neo-imperialism" manifests through political and economic domination, undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. Ukraine thus resists not only overt conquest, but also subtler forms of external pressure that continue post-colonial hierarchies.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper


Establishment split

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.1

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.1