Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates at 4.1%, Weighs Trump Tariff Impact

Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates at 4.1%, Weighs Trump Tariff Impact
Above: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks at a press conference in Sydney on April 1, 2025. Image copyright: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Australian Labor Party Narrative

When the Australian Labor Party took office, inflation and interest rates were rising, driven by the previous Coalition government’s mismanagement. Now, under Labor’s careful stewardship, both are falling, moving ever closer to the RBA’s target. While Australians will be disappointed by the lack of a cut this month amid global economic uncertainties, a reduction is highly likely to take place in May.

Liberal/National Coalition narrative

The RBA’s refusal to cut interest rates further is a direct consequence of Labor’s fiscal incompetence and abject failure in government, underscoring the fact that hardworking Australians currently have no way back to the standard of living they enjoyed prior to Labor taking power in 2022. If the government is re-elected in May, this will be a lost decade for Australia.

Metaculus Prediction


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