Reform UK Hits Record Poll High as Labour, Tories Fall

Reform UK Hits Record Poll High as Labour, Tories Fall
Above: Sarah Pochin (R), the new Reform UK MP for Runcorn and Helsby, arrives with leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage (C) ahead of her swearing in at parliament on May 6, 2025, in London, England.  Image copyright: Leon Neal/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

Reform’s rise shows people crave change — but their hate-filled answers won’t fix the U.K.'s crises. Starmer’s Labour has offered nothing and paid the price, although the media continues to let him off in a way Corbyn was never allowed. The left must step up: offer bold solutions, speak to working-class struggle, and rebuild trust from the ground up

Pro-government narrative

Starmer’s government may not be flashy, but that’s exactly what the U.K. needs: steady, competent leadership focused on delivery over drama. Governing is hard work, not theatre, and the real test isn't poll ratings but rather results over time. As Reform councilors now face the grind of governance, their competence will be put to the test: slogans fade, but serious leadership endures.

Right narrative

Reform’s record poll lead proves what millions already know: Labour and the Tories are finished. Voters are done with broken promises, mass immigration, and weak leadership. Farage’s party is the true voice of the people: patriotic, bold, and unafraid to shake up the status quo. The real opposition isn’t the limp Tories but rather Reform. Britain is slowly but surely waking up.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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