RSF Claims Capture of El Fasher After 18-Month Siege
The Spin
Pro-RSF narrative
The RSF has dealt a devastating blow against the Port Sudan clique in Darfur. Through the efforts of its forces, it ousted the SAF from El Fasher and successfully liberated the city. While operations to eliminate remaining pockets of resistance will continue, the RSF can now turn its attention to addressing the humanitarian needs of El Fasher's civilian population.
Pro-SAF narrative
The reports coming from the rebellious RSF are complete fabrications. In its desperation, the Dagalo militia has launched a disinformation campaign to undermine the confidence and morale of the SAF's troops by claiming that El Fasher has fallen. Nothing, however, could be further from the truth, as the city and its people continue to stand defiantly against the rogue militias.
Pro-establishment narrative
Regardless of whoever controls El Fasher, the humanitarian situation in the city remains dire, with hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped, terrified and shelled without any access to food, healthcare or safety. The two factions in this war must agree to an immediate ceasefire to prevent further civilian casualties and allow safe passage for those desperately trying to flee.
Metaculus Prediction
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