Sudan: Russia Secures First African Naval Base Deal

Sudan: Russia Secures First African Naval Base Deal
Above: Sergey Lavrov and Ali Al Sadiq in Sudan on Feb. 9, 2023. Image copyright: Mahmoud Hjaj/Contributor/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The Facts

  • During his Moscow visit, Sudan's Foreign Minister Ali Youssef Ahmed al-Sharif announced that Sudan and Russia have agreed to establish Russia's first naval base in Africa on Sudan's Red Sea coast.

  • Initially signed in 2020, the agreement allows Russia to station up to four navy ships, including nuclear-powered vessels, and maintain up to 300 military and civilian personnel at the base for 25 years.

  • This deal comes at a strategic time for Russia, following uncertainty over its Tartus naval base in Syria after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, making the Sudan facility crucial for maintaining Russian naval presence in the region.

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

The naval base agreement represents a strategic victory for Russia. It expands its military presence in Africa and secures vital access to the Red Sea trade routes after losing its Syrian base. The deal strengthens Russia's geopolitical influence and provides a crucial foothold for projecting power in the region.

Anti-Russia narrative

The establishment of a Russian naval base in Sudan raises serious concerns about regional stability and security, and risks significant shift in regional power dynamics and strategic competition. The base could disrupt established Western influence, complicate humanitarian efforts in Sudan's civil war, and potentially enable Russia to threaten vital shipping lanes.

Metaculus Prediction



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