Polls show clear favourite emerging in race to become South Koreas next president
Independent3 days
SKorea Election: Lee Leads as Final Polls Show Tightening Race
Above: A person walks by presidential election posters of candidates in Seoul, South Korea, on May 15, 2025. Image copyright: Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
The Spin
Liberal narrative
Lee Jae-myung represents the clear choice for accountability and economic recovery after the constitutional crisis caused by Yoon's reckless martial law attempt. His consistent lead across multiple polls shows public trust in his vision for fiscal stimulus, job creation, and justice. While margins have narrowed, his strong support in key regions like Seoul and his ability to stay ahead — even amid conservative unifying efforts — demonstrate broad appeal among voters seeking real change.
Conservative narrative
Kim Moon-soo's steady momentum in closing a 20-point gap shows conservatives are rallying behind a proven leader who can restore business confidence and growth. His pro-market policies, deregulation agenda, and firm stance on North Korea offer needed stability. With the race tightening in key areas like Seoul — where some polls show just a 3.2-point gap — voters are responding to Kim's experience and pragmatic approach over Lee's divisive rhetoric.
Establishment-critical narrative
Lee Jun-seok stands alone in rejecting any alliance with the party responsible for the December martial law crisis, refusing to compromise his principles for political convenience. His campaign speaks directly to young Koreans demanding accountability, innovation, and a break from the old guard. With double-digit support and growing momentum, Lee offers a bold, future-focused alternative to the failures of both major parties.