Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger Launch Unified Force
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The launch of the Alliance of Sahel States’ joint force underscores the widening gap between AES rhetoric and reality, as military juntas claiming to defend sovereignty instead preside over deepening insecurity and state breakdown. Terrorist attacks have quadrupled and nearly 9,000 people have been killed compared to the democratic period before, while expelling Western partners and relying on Russian mercenaries has accelerated institutional decay rather than delivered lasting security across the Sahel.
Establishment-critical narrative
The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States’ joint force marks a break with decades of French neocolonial extraction and Western-led counterterrorism that failed to stabilize the region and instead coincided with expanding jihadist violence. By expelling foreign troops, asserting control over strategic mineral resources through revised mining codes, and grounding regional military coordination in popular mobilization, these governments are pursuing an explicitly anti-imperialist project to restore political autonomy and reclaim sovereignty.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
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