Who will win the civil war in Sudan?
MetaculusMAY 25 2024
Sudan's Army Retakes Presidential Palace in Khartoum
Above: Sudan's army chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan. Image copyright: Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The liberation of the presidential palace is a historic victory that will begin restoring security and stability to the capital. The SAF will continue to advance until every inch of the country is freed from militia control, and Sudanese people can be safe again and live without fear or hunger.
Narrative B
The RSF has consolidated significant territorial control in western Sudan — establishing parallel governance structures and achieving strategic victories in North Darfur. Sudan faces a contested, partitioned reality as their ongoing military capabilities and regional influence grow.