Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
MetaculusDEC 1 2023
Thai Prime Minister Survives No-Confidence Vote
Above: Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra gestures as she arrives to attend a no-confidence vote at the Parliament in Bangkok on March 26, 2025. Image copyright: Lillian Suwanrumpha/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Members of parliament did the right thing, as the push from the opposition to topple Paetongtarn based exclusively on the fact that she is the daughter of Thaksin was nonsensical. She is the rightful Thai head of government and the leader of the Pheu Thai party, and allegations against her are nothing but baseless claims.
Narrative B
That the prime minister survived a no-confidence vote tells little about the actual state of Thai politics, especially as the governing coalition was expected to defeat that motion anyway. Paetongtarn may have won the vote, but only because her father continues to operate as the prime minister in all but name.