Trump Announces 30% Tariffs on EU and Mexico Starting Aug. 1

    Trump Announces 30% Tariffs on EU and Mexico Starting Aug. 1
    Above: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt holds up a copy of a letter to Japan announcing 25% tariffs beginning Aug. 1st, July 7, 2025. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-Trump narrative

    These tariffs are essential for protecting American workers and fixing decades of unfair trade relationships that have hollowed out U.S. manufacturing. Mexico hasn't done nearly enough to stop the fentanyl crisis killing Americans, and the EU has maintained massive trade surpluses while blocking American products with their own barriers. The 30% rate gives these countries a clear deadline to negotiate fair deals that put America first.

    Anti-Trump narrative

    Trump's chaotic tariff threats are damaging America's most important alliances and will ultimately hurt American consumers through higher prices on everything from cars to pharmaceuticals. The EU and Mexico were already negotiating in good faith, and these sudden escalations destroy trust while risking a devastating trade war. American businesses and families will pay the price for this reckless approach to diplomacy.

    Metaculus Prediction



    The Controversies



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