Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
MetaculusJAN 11
Global Leaders Attend Munich Security Summit
Above: On the first day of the 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, US Vice President JD Vance meets with the NATO Secretary General (unseen) in front of the NATO emblem. Feb. 14, 2025. Image copyright: Tobia Schwarz/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Facts
The 61st Munich Security Conference began on Friday, bringing together over 50 heads of state and 150 ministers to discuss global security challenges. The three-day annual conference will reportedly feature talks between Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Vice President Vance.
The conference agenda encompasses multiple global challenges, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, regional tensions in Asia, and discussions concerning the potential increase of European defense spending to 5% of GDP.
The summit comes after US Pres. Donald Trump's recent phone conversation with Vladimir Putin — and subsequent announcement of immediate peace negotiations — generated concern among European allies about their possible exclusion from potential peace deals.
The Spin
Narrative A
The Trump administration's approach marks a necessary reset in US foreign policy, pushing European allies to take greater responsibility for their security while seeking practical solutions to end the costly Ukraine conflict through direct negotiations with Russia.
Narrative B
The sudden policy shift under Trump undermines years of Western unity that risks rewarding Russian aggression and leaving Ukraine vulnerable to unfavorable peace terms while threatening the international rules-based order that has maintained European security.
Metaculus Prediction
The Controversies
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