Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
MetaculusJAN 20
Global Leaders Attend Munich Security Summit
Above: On the first day of the 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, US Vice President JD Vance meets with the NATO Secretary General (unseen) in front of the NATO emblem. Feb. 14, 2025. Image copyright: Tobia Schwarz/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The Trump administration's approach marks a necessary reset in US foreign policy, pushing European allies to take greater responsibility for their security while seeking practical solutions to end the costly Ukraine conflict through direct negotiations with Russia.
Narrative B
The sudden policy shift under Trump undermines years of Western unity that risks rewarding Russian aggression and leaving Ukraine vulnerable to unfavorable peace terms while threatening the international rules-based order that has maintained European security.