Uganda Battles New Ebola Outbreak

Uganda Battles New Ebola Outbreak
Above: Four days after an outbreak was confirmed, a nurse gives a volunteer the first Ebola Sudan vaccine shot at Mulago Referral Hospital in Kampala, on Feb. 3, 2025. Image copyright: Badru Katumba/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Uganda has sought to reassure the public after confirming its eighth Ebola outbreak on Jan. 30, 2024, after a 32-year-old male nurse at Mulago National Referral Hospital died from the Sudan strain of the virus, which has historically shown a fatality rate of over 40%.

  • The outbreak has expanded to seven confirmed cases in Kampala, with 298 contacts identified for monitoring, and clusters have emerged in both family and healthcare facility settings.

  • Uganda launched the first-ever clinical efficacy trial for a Sudan Ebola strain vaccine just four days after the outbreak was confirmed, with international support from the World Health Organization and other powers.

The Spin

Narrative A

Uganda's Ministry of Health is in full control in managing the situation and has implemented comprehensive response measures, including contact tracing, isolation facilities, and vaccination programs for those who have been in contact with infected individuals and for healthcare workers. The announcement of the Ebola outbreak was made in compliance with international health regulations that require the immediate reporting of major threats to global health. To effectively manage public response, strategic communication will involve providing updates every two weeks instead of daily reports.

Narrative B

The government's announcement approach has severely impacted the tourism sector, leading to immediate international travel advisories and potential long-term damage to Uganda's reputation as a travel destination. The economic consequences of such health crisis communications could compound the impact of the disease itself, particularly for a sector already struggling to recover from previous incidents.

Metaculus Prediction

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