Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?
MetaculusNOV 26 2024
UK, Irish Governments to Consider Formal Paramilitary Engagement
Above: A loyalist paramilitary mural is pictured damaged following high winds on Dec. 7, 2024 in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Image copyright: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The decision to consider formal contact with Northern Irish paramilitaries is a positive and necessary step. Despite efforts to address paramilitary activity, these groups continue to threaten communities through coercion, violence, and control. Engaging with paramilitary groups to foster disbandment is a bold approach that moves beyond containment, working towards a peaceful, paramilitary-free future.
Narrative B
The decision to engage with Northern Irish paramilitary groups sends the wrong message. These groups, deeply embedded in practices of crime and coercion, should be dismantled, not negotiated with. Offering them a platform legitimizes their actions and undermines the progress made in challenging their influence. Instead of appointing an expert to assess engagement, the government should demand their immediate disbandment and enforce the law.