Ukraine Launches Renewed Offensive in Russia's Kursk Region

Ukraine Launches Renewed Offensive in Russia's Kursk Region
Above: Ukrainian soldiers of the 68th Jaeger Brigade continue their military activity in positions in the Pokrovsk region, Ukraine, on Dec. 27, 2024. Image copyright: Piotr Sobik/Anadolu/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Ukraine launched a new offensive in Russia's Kursk region on Sunday, officials from both countries confirmed later in the day.

  • It comes months after Ukraine first launched its surprise incursion into the region last August — catching Russia off-guard and capturing roughly 500 sq miles (1.3K sq km) of territory. It marked the first ground invasion of Russia since World War II.

  • Since then, Russian forces have slowly edged Ukrainian troops back — regaining an estimated 40% of the land, according to analysts — but have been unable to fully drive back the Ukrainian effort. This is despite thousands of North Korean troops being deployed alongside Russia in the region.

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region is important because the more territory it gains, the more it will strengthen its hand in any possible peace negotiations.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces have crushed Ukraine's attempt at gaining a foothold in the Kursk region. Over the past day, hundreds of personnel and dozens of pieces of equipment were liquidated.

Metaculus Prediction

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