Who will win the civil war in Sudan?
MetaculusMAY 22 2024
UN Seeks $6B for Sudan as World's Worst Hunger Crisis Looms
Above: Displaced Sudanese gather near the town of Tawila in North Darfur on Feb. 14, 2025. Image copyright: Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Facts
The UN on Monday launched a $6B humanitarian appeal for Sudan in 2025 — a 40% increase from the previous year — aimed at assisting nearly 26M people within the country and across the region who face dire circumstances due to ongoing conflict.
The humanitarian response plan allocates $4.2B for assistance within Sudan — targeting 21M people — while $1.8B is designated for supporting 4.8M refugees and host communities in seven neighboring countries.
In 2024, humanitarian organizations reached more than 15.6M across Sudan with $1.8B in support — providing food, water, sanitation, health, and shelter assistance to over 13M.
The Spin
Narrative A
The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is a collective failure that shames the global community, as it has become the epicenter of the world's largest and most severe hunger crisis ever recorded. Millions are facing starvation while the international community remains largely disengaged.
Narrative B
The military logic of achieving victory continues to overshadow humanitarian concerns. Complex bureaucratic processes and access restrictions severely hamper aid delivery efforts, while limited funding and operational constraints prevent effective assistance to those in desperate need.
Metaculus Prediction
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