US-SKorea Trade Talks Begin Amid Tariff Tensions

US-SKorea Trade Talks Begin Amid Tariff Tensions
Above: South Korea's Trade, Industry, and Energy Minister Ahn Duk-geun (C) arrives at Incheon International Airport on April 23, 2025, as he departs for Washington, D.C., for finance and trade ministers' talks with the U.S.  Image copyright: Jung Yeon-Je/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump’s bold 25% tariffs on South Korea are a resounding success, compelling Seoul to scramble for talks. Acting President Han Duck-soo, ditching retaliation, sent Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo to Washington, proving the tariffs' raw power. Trump's "great call" with Han and South Korea's rush to negotiate shipbuilding and LNG deals to slash its $55.7B trade surplus show his strategy is dominating, forcing concessions fast.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's 25% tariffs on South Korea are backfiring, tanking global trade and hurting economies. South Korea's exports to the U.S. plummeted in April, with auto and steel shipments hit hard. The IMF warns of a global growth slowdown to 2.8%, citing Trump-induced trade tensions. Even Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the tariff war "unsustainable," predicting a slog with no clear wins, only market chaos and higher inflation.

Pro-China narrative

Trump's 25% tariffs are failing, forcing him to consider scaling back on Chinese imports as they disrupt global trade. South Korea's exports to the U.S. dropped significantly, showing economic strain. Meanwhile, China-South Korea ties thrive, with 4.6M Chinese tourists boosting South Korea's economy by billions of dollars in 2024. China's resilient services sector and free trade networks with South Korea counter U.S. protectionism, stabilizing Asia's economy.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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