Controversy
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Nikki Haley
Gavin Newsom
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
R.L. Miller
Katty Kay
Anthony Scaramucci
+5
Status:Resolved

Will Biden Be Replaced as the Democratic Nominee?

Resolution:

Yes.

Resolved on Jul 21, 2024

UNLIKELYLIKELY

Claims

Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris“We will not back down... We wil fight and we will win [the 2024 election].”Jul 04, 2024
Anthony Scaramucci
Anthony Scaramucci"I don’t think he can make it to the election."Jul 15, 2024
Joe Biden
Joe Biden“I'm the nominee of the Democratic Party. No one's pushing me out. I'm not leaving."Jul 04, 2024
R.L. Miller
R.L. MillerBiden stepping out of the race is “an extraordinarily unlikely scenario.”Feb 16, 2024
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley"Mark my words….Biden will not be the Democrat nominee."Jul 06, 2024
Joe Biden
Joe BidenI won't step down "unless they [my team] came back and said, 'There's no way you can win.'"Jul 12, 2024
Katty Kay
Katty KayTrump's attempted assassination "takes some pressure off Joe Biden... in the short-term," but "in the long-term... the pressure still builds on [him] to get out of the race."Jul 14, 2024
J.B. Pritzker
J.B. PritzkerThe idea of a last-ditch effort to replace Biden as the nominee is "such an odd hypothetical."Mar 05, 2023
Stephanie Cutter
Stephanie Cutter"President Biden is the nominee and he's going to remain the nominee."Jul 15, 2024
Metaculus
MetaculusWho will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump
Donald Trump"Unless he says, 'I'm getting out,' they can't do anything to get him out other than the 25th amendment... and he doesn't want to quit."Feb 13, 2023
Katty Kay
Katty Kay"Right now I would bet that he [Biden] is out of the race."Jul 11, 2024
Ted Cruz
Ted CruzIt's "significantly more likely than not that Democrats will not have Joe Biden on the ballot."Feb 12, 2024
John Kasich
John Kasich"[T]here's a real possibility that Joe Biden will not be the Democrat nominee."May 19, 2024
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom"Our nominee is Joe Biden - I'm looking forward to voting for him in November."Jun 28, 2024
Anthony Scaramucci
Anthony Scaramucci"If he [Biden] stays in the race, he will go down in history as a guy that... squandered a good presidency, a good agenda... as a result of his Shakespearean ego."Jul 14, 2024
Joe Biden
Joe Biden“If the Lord Almighty said, ‘Joe get out of the race’, then I would get out of the race. But the Lord Almighty’s not coming down.”Jul 05, 2024
Donna Brazile
Donna BrazileBiden "is not going anywhere."Jul 15, 2024
Thomas Gift
Thomas Gift"[T]he odds of Biden changing course now look small."Jan 26, 2024


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