Democrats promise 'orderly process' to replace Biden, where Harris is favored but questions remain
Korea HeraldJul 29
Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Harris Leads Trump 44% to 42%
Above: Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at West Allis Central High School on July 23, 2024 in West Allis, Wisconsin. Image copyright: Jim Vondruska/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday showed Vice Pres. Kamala Harris has a two percentage point lead over former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump.
According to the poll held among 1,018 voters, Harris's lead expanded to a four-point margin (42-38%) lead when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included in the ballot.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
With Biden stepping aside from the presidential race, the political landscape has shifted significantly, as shown by multiple polls since Sunday. Harris has some time to solidify her support base, build her platform, and woo undecided voters and potentially those considering Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Americans have broadly agreed with Biden's decision to step away, and Harris' momentum has snowballed.
Republican narrative
The left-leaning media is predictably gushing with support for Kamala Harris after the Democratic Party's veritable toppling of the unpopular Joe Biden. But polling bumps come and go in the course of a long election season and Trump still leads according to some surveys. Kamala Harris is an untested political figure and soon she will have to answer tough questions on issues including the US southern border. More skepticism about Harris is likely to enter polls in the weeks ahead.
Narrative C
With Biden out, reliable data on "Harris vs Trump" will take a few more days to emerge. For now, pollsters are merely replacing Biden with Harris in questioning. While this may offer some insights, they are unlikely to be comprehensive. Understanding variations on key issues and demographics will take more time, especially as Harris' platform emerges.
Metaculus Prediction
Public figures in this story
Articles on this story
Sign Up for Our Free NewslettersSign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!