Claims
Minghao Zhao"Beijing's main goal is to deter Taiwan independence, rather than realize military reunification."Nov 07, 2024
Mike Minihan"Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for [a] 2025 [invasion of Taiwan]."Jan 29, 2023
John Mearsheimer"I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan any time soon."Nov 05, 2024
Bonnie S. GlaserA Chinese takeover of Taiwan "is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."Oct 29, 2023
Henry Olsen"China clearly is building its capability to invade Taiwan sometime in the near future."Sep 19, 2022
Mike Studeman"To us, it's [Beijing invading Taiwan] only a matter of time, not a matter of 'if'."Nov 05, 2024
Charles Glaser"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."Dec 16, 2021
William Burns"I wouldn't underestimate President Xi's determination to assert China's control over Taiwan."Jul 21, 2022
Lyle Goldstein"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."Nov 07, 2024
Yun SunChina is "more likely to resort to the use of force" if it "perceives a higher likelihood of U.S. support of Taiwan independence."Nov 07, 2024
Tsai Ing-wen"My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for [China] to consider a major invasion of Taiwan."Nov 30, 2023
Mark Milley"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."Jul 03, 2022
Philip S. Davidson"I think the threat [of China seizing Taiwan] is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years."Nov 05, 2024
Bates Gill"[T]he likelihood of more PRC threats and shows of force against Taiwan will continue to increase over the coming years."Nov 07, 2024
Oriana Skylar Mastro"I think it's more likely than not [that China will invade Taiwan] in the next couple of years."Nov 05, 2024
Denny Roy"There is no convincing reason to expect [Xi Jinping] to rush to a military showdown over Taiwan."Apr 15, 2024
Michael McCaul"It's not a question of if but when he [Xi Jinping] decides to [invade Taiwan]."May 23, 2022
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