Trump's 145% China Tariffs Spark Global Trade Uncertainty

Trump's 145% China Tariffs Spark Global Trade Uncertainty
Above: U.S. President Donald Trump hosts Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her visiting officials in the Cabinet Room at the White House on April 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump's tariff strategy aims at "strategic decoupling" from China, addressing America's dangerous dependencies in pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, and manufacturing. Trump is looking to rebuild U.S. industrial capacity while weakening Beijing's economy, potentially delaying their Taiwan invasion plans. This seeks to break China's will without risking a military conflict, embodying Trump's approach to national security.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's tariff war has backfired spectacularly. While wiping out $6 trillion in stock value, his policies have isolated America and pushed allies toward our adversaries. China, better prepared and less dependent on US trade, can weather the storm through state intervention and cultural resilience. Rather than weakening Beijing, Trump's erratic approach has made China appear the more stable, reliable partner in global commerce.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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