Controversy
Alvin Bragg
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Randy Zelin
Andrew Weissmann
Michael Cohen
Richard Hasen
Todd Blanche
Glenn Kirschner
Alina Habba
+5
Status:Resolved

Will Trump Be Criminally Convicted in the Hush Money Case?

Resolution:

Yes.

Resolved on May 30, 2024

UNLIKELYLIKELY

Claims

Todd Blanche
Todd Blanche"There’s nothing wrong with trying to influence an election. It’s called democracy."Apr 23, 2024
Glenn Kirschner
Glenn KirschnerDonald Trump "will be the most unpopular person in that Manhattan courtroom," and "the jury... will convict him."Apr 13, 2024
Andrew Weissmann
Andrew Weissmann"He could be looking at jail."Apr 03, 2024
Randy Zelin
Randy Zelin"I don't think he's getting convicted. I think there will be a hung jury."Apr 16, 2024
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio"The [hush money] charges here are absurd."Apr 04, 2023
Matthew Colangelo
Matthew Colangelo"[T]his was not spin or communications strategy. This was a planned, coordinated, long-running conspiracy to influence the 2016 election."Apr 23, 2024
Stormy Daniels
Stormy Daniels"I am denying this affair because it never happened."Jan 31, 2018
Donald Trump
Donald Trump"This is a rigged trial... coming from the White House."Apr 19, 2024
Todd Blanche
Todd BlancheThe court's decision should be "a very swift not guilty verdict."Apr 22, 2024
Metaculus
MetaculusWhat will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?
Alina Habba
Alina Habba"This is a joke! It's an affront to the American Constitution. It's an affront to our judicial system."Apr 22, 2024
Richard Hasen
Richard Hasen"Trump may not be convicted of a felony in the case, and if he is, there’s a reasonable chance of an eventual reversal on appeal."Apr 14, 2024
Michael Cohen
Michael Cohen"I believe that he will be found guilty on all charges."Feb 15, 2024
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz"The indictment of Donald Trump is wholly political and baseless."Apr 04, 2023
Alvin Bragg
Alvin Bragg"[N]o matter who you are," New York "cannot and will not normalize serious criminal conduct."Apr 04, 2023
Stormy Daniels
Stormy DanielsThose involved "made it sound like I had no choice [but to deny the affair]."Aug 22, 2018
Donald Trump
Donald Trump"This is a kangaroo court and the judge should recuse himself!"Apr 23, 2024
The New York Times
The New York Times"Though the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, has assembled a mountain of evidence, a conviction is hardly assured."Apr 21, 2024
Todd Blanche
Todd Blanche"President Trump is innocent. President Trump did not commit any crimes."Apr 24, 2024


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