Controversy
Status:Open
Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Marwan Muasher"A two-state solution exists only in theory. In practice, it died long ago."Nov 15, 2023
Daniel Seidemann"If Israel has the will, or capacity, to relocate 200,000 settlers from the West Bank and Jerusalem, a two-state solution is a viable option."Dec 17, 2023
Joe BidenNetanyahu's government "doesn't want anything remotely approaching a two-state solution.Dec 13, 2023
Muriel Asseburg"If international actors can muster enough political will and capital... they could still bring about [a two-state solution]."Nov 15, 2023
Yossi Beilin“[The two-state solution] is the only solution – there is no realistic competition.”Nov 04, 2023
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian"The only thing that Iran and Israel have in common is that neither of them believes in a two-state solution."Dec 11, 2023
Caroline de Gruyter"Getting everyone [religious and extremist settlers] out just requires one thing: political will... I doubt, alas, we will see it in the near future."Nov 15, 2023
Bezalel Smotrich"Anyone who thinks that the State of Israel will agree to some plan of establishing a government of professionals which Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will be involved in under the guise of technocratic officials is living in an illusion.”Jul 25, 2024
Eylon Levy"Full [Palestinian] sovereignty and full statehood... would represent an existential threat to Israel."Jan 22, 2024
Lindsey Graham"[T]he Arabs are going to demand some form of two-state solution" and "Israel’s going to demand security buffers."Dec 17, 2023
Yair Lapid“[W]hat has happened on 7 October has postponed the possibility of the two-state solution."Dec 15, 2023
Joel Peters"The two-state solution remains on the table, if only for the lack of any viable alternative."Nov 15, 2023
Judy Dempsey"The war between Israel and Hamas makes the two-state solution less viable than ever before."Nov 15, 2023
Yuval Noah Harari"[T]he current conflict is likely to put the last nail in the coffin of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process."Oct 12, 2023
MetaculusWill the Gaza War lead to a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?
Prince Faisal bin Farhan“We in the region are... going to look at how we can solve the bigger problem in the context of Gaza. That is, a real commitment to a two-state solution."Apr 28, 2024
Hassan Nasrallah“The implicit goals of the Israeli war are to occupy Gaza, displace the Gazans and to turn the enclave into a beach for the Israeli settlers.”Jan 15, 2024
Tammy BaldwinNetanyahu's government's actions do not "appear to be moving us closer to... achieving a lasting peace in the region through a two-state solution"Dec 22, 2023
Benjamin Netanyahu"Israel must have security control over all the territory west of the Jordan [River]. This is a necessary condition and it conflicts with the idea of [Palestinian] sovereignty."Jan 19, 2024
