Controversy
Status:Open
Will the Supreme Court rule against Trump's IEEPA tariff authority?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
National Constitution Center"Odds are the Trump administration’s top lawyer defending the president’s tariffs Wednesday before the justices did not go home very optimistic about his chances [securing a favorable ruling]."Nov 06, 2025
William Byrnes"Our initial assessment of the pointed questions posed by the majority of justices is that the Supreme Court will likely decide that the Executive branch may not impose import duties (i.e., tariffs) based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (‘IEEPA’)."Nov 15, 2025
Jolanda de Groot"Expectations are high that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – the 1970s legislation that allows a president to declare a national economic emergency – to justify tariffs."Nov 25, 2025
Kalshi"There is a 23% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tarriffs."Apr 23, 2026
Council on Foreign Relations"Given the president’s public claims that the tariffs have raised massive sums, however, that argument is unlikely to convince the court."Nov 14, 2025
Damon V. Pike"Based on the questions posed by the justices, the IEEPA tariffs appear to be in jeopardy."Apr 24, 2026
Good Judgment"Good Judgment Project Superforecasters assigned a 65–66% probability that the Court would rule reciprocal and trafficking tariffs unauthorized or unconstitutional."Apr 24, 2026
William Alan Reinsch"My guess—and it is a guess—is that at least two, if not all three, will come out against the president’s position, producing a 5–4 or 6–3 decision in favor of the plaintiffs to some degree."Nov 15, 2025
The Globe and Mail"After grilling the Trump administration’s lawyers at the November hearing, the Supreme Court is seen by many legal experts as likely to declare the IEEPA tariffs illegal – confirming two lower court decisions."Jan 02, 2026
Polymarket"There is a 27% chance that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs."Apr 23, 2026
David Schefter"The markets are generally expecting Trump to lose the case, but to then re-impose similar tariffs through other means."Apr 24, 2026
Goldman Sachs"Goldman said prediction markets now assign roughly a 10 percentage point lower probability that the Court will uphold the tariffs."Nov 06, 2025
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.4.3
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.4.3