Controversy
Status:Resolved
Will the US Exit the Paris Climate Agreement Again in Trump's Second Term?
Resolution:
Yes.
Resolved on Jan 20, 2025
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Bob Ward"Based on his first term, we can expect him to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement."Nov 06, 2024
David G. Victor"Trump 2.0 will probably do so again [pull out of the Paris agreement], perhaps on Trump’s first day in power."Nov 19, 2024
Todd Stern"It's almost certain that he [Trump] will [withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement] — he basically has said he will."Nov 10, 2024
Kate Aronoff"Trump will almost certainly pull the country out of the Paris climate agreement again."Dec 10, 2024
Myron Ebell"Everybody [in the second Trump administration] is for getting out [of the Paris climate agreement]."Jan 17, 2025
Mandy GunasekaraLeaving the broader climate framework "would certainly be on the table."Mar 12, 2024
Vijaya Ramachandran"At some point in the coming months, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will almost certainly pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement."Jan 07, 2025
Dhesigen NaidooBig gestures in line with the America First Energy, pro-fossil fuel doctrine, "may include initiating a second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement."Nov 18, 2024
Donald Trump"I'm immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off."Jan 21, 2025
Marc Pierini"The first expectation after Trump's inauguration on January 20 is a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate."Feb 12, 1531
MetaculusIf a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?
Isabelle Anguelovski"Trump's victory will likely see the US exit from the [Paris] agreement again."Feb 13, 2025
Erik Solheim"Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris agreement, may be even from the UN Climate Convention."Feb 13, 2025
Robert N. Stavins"It is reasonable to anticipate that one of his [Trump's] first actions will be to file papers with the United Nations to initiate withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement of 2015."Jan 22, 2025
Somini Sengupta"Mr. Trump, who has called global warming a hoax, is all but certain to pull out of the Paris accord."Nov 07, 2024
Mark Maslin"During his first term in office, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and many of us predict he will do this again."Nov 08, 2024
Joseph Majkut"I fully expect a new Trump administration will pull us out of Paris [agreement] again."Nov 15, 2024
Landon Derentz"The US exit from the Paris Agreement, for example, was a signature feature of Trump’s first-term energy and climate policy and an act that is all but certain to be reinstituted early next year."Nov 06, 2024
