Claims
Gary Marcus"[W]e will eventually reach AGI... and quite possibly before the end of this century."Jan 22, 2023
Shane LeggThere is a "50% chance of AGI within 3 years, then 5-50% chance of extinction ONE YEAR LATER."Jan 22, 2025
Geoffrey HintonCurrent AI like GPT-4 "eclipses a person" in general knowledge and could soon do so in reasoning as well.May 02, 2023
Yann LeCunSociety is more likely to get "cat-level" or "dog-level" AI years before human-level AI.Dec 03, 2023
Yoshua Bengio"Superhuman AIs" will be achieved "between a few years and a couple of decades."Jul 21, 2023
Dario Amodei"I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer."Oct 11, 2024
Stuart RussellA few AI CEOs have said, "There's a significant chance, like 10 or 25% chance, of human extinction."Jan 22, 2025
Melanie Mitchell"We could build a human level intelligence in principle... [but] I think we're quite far away."Aug 14, 2024
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