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  1. Home

Artificial Intelligence

    context
    APR 2023
    Image copyright: AI-generated via Lovart
    context last updated JUL 15

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Artificial intelligence will be great for humanity and is no cause for alarm. Amplifying human intelligence with AI will free people from boring and dangerous jobs, and bring greater prosperity for all. Ultimately, AI will help cure diseases and unlock amazing new technologies with which humanity can flourish like never before. Contrary to luddite scaremongering, old jobs will be replaced by new better ones. AI can be biased against marginalized groups and misused to spread disinformation and break laws, but responsible tech companies are currently working with governments and other stakeholders to prevent this.

    Gatesnotes.Com

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Unelected tech leaders gain undue influence through creepy AI surveillance and by controlling the truth with their AI-powered social media algorithms, and this manufactured truth includes "AI isn't a threat." Why is it legal to sell AI built to kill, and to deploy AI so powerful that its makers don't fully understand it? Much like how Homo Sapiens outsmarted and replaced the Neanderthals, AI will soon outsmart and replace Homo Sapiens — first on the job market and then altogether when we're no longer needed. Whoever first creates AGI won't have won an arms race but a suicide race, dooming humanity.

    Time

    Techno-skeptic narrative

    AI is overhyped, and won't eclipse humans for a long time, if ever. Although today's chatbots, translators, and image generators may seem impressive, they lack a fundamental understanding of the world that they mask by learning statistics from a ridiculously large data set.

    MUO

    Metaculus Prediction


    The Controversies


    LOWHIGH
    Status:Open
    Does AI Pose an Existential Threat to Humanity?
    Controversy
    JUL 15JUL 15

    UNLIKELYLIKELY
    Status:Open
    Will AI Bring Economic Risks?
    Controversy
    JUL 15JUL 15

    UNLIKELYLIKELY
    Status:Open
    Will AI Replace All Jobs?
    Controversy
    JUL 15JUL 15

    NOT SOONSOON
    Status:Open
    Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence, and When?
    Controversy
    JUL 15JUL 15

    Go Deeper

    Study Links AI Chatbots to Mental Health Crises
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    11 hrs11 hrs
    Study: Google AI Overviews Cut News Site Audiences
    Story
    +6
    3 days3 days
    Trump Signs Three AI Orders
    Story
    +11
    4 days4 days
    UK to Introduce AI Age Checks for Asylum Seekers
    Story
    +5
    5 days5 days
    UK Signs Strategic Partnership With OpenAI
    Story
    +5
    6 days6 days
    Study: AI Persuaded to Comply With Objectionable Requests
    Story
    +5
    7 days7 days
    Microsoft Ends China Engineer Access to Pentagon Systems
    Story
    +9
    7 days7 days
    Studies: Top AI Companies Have 'Unacceptable-Risk' Threshold
    Story
    +5
    JUL 18JUL 18
    Report: OpenAI Building ChatGPT Support for Excel, PowerPoint Files
    Story
    +6
    JUL 16JUL 16
    Meta to Invest 'Hundreds of Billions' to Build Superintelligence
    Story
    +12
    JUL 15JUL 15
    Google Hires Windsurf Leaders in $2.4B Deal After OpenAI Talks Fail
    Story
    +3
    JUL 12JUL 12
    Robot Performs Surgery Autonomously With 100% Success Rate
    Story
    +8
    JUL 11JUL 11
    AI Child Abuse Videos Surge 400% in First Half of 2025
    Story
    +7
    JUL 11JUL 11
    Study: AI Tools Slow Down Experienced Developers by 19%
    Story
    +3
    JUL 11JUL 11
    OpenAI Plans AI Browser Launch to Challenge Google Chrome
    Story
    +6
    JUL 10JUL 10
    Grok AI Chatbot Generates Antisemitic Content, Posts Deleted
    Story
    +16
    JUL 9JUL 9
    AI Impersonator Targets Rubio, Contacts Foreign Ministers
    Story
    +8
    JUL 8JUL 8
    Reports: AI a Factor in Record College Grad Unemployment
    Story
    +7
    JUL 7JUL 7
    Sutskever Takes CEO Role at SSI After Gross Joins Meta
    Story
    +8
    JUL 3JUL 3
    AI Band Velvet Sundown Revealed as Elaborate Art Hoax
    Story
    +2
    JUL 3JUL 3
    OpenAI Signs $30B Oracle Cloud Deal for AI Infrastructure
    Story
    +7
    JUL 3JUL 3
    Microsoft Cuts 9,000 Jobs Amid AI Push, Restructuring
    Story
    +8
    JUL 3JUL 3
    Report: Apple Considers Third-Party AI Models to Power Siri Upgrade
    Story
    +5
    JUL 2JUL 2
    Amazon Deploys 1 Millionth Robot
    Story
    +5
    JUL 2JUL 2
    Microsoft AI System Outperforms Doctors in Complex Diagnoses
    Story
    +8
    JUL 1JUL 1
    Meta Launches Superintelligence Labs Under New AI Chief
    Story
    +9
    JUL 1JUL 1
    Report: OpenAI Using Google's AI Chips to Power ChatGPT
    Story
    +4
    JUN 30JUN 30
    US Judge Tosses Author Lawsuit over Meta AI Training
    Story
    +10
    JUN 27JUN 27
    Meta Oversight Board Finds Inconsistent AI Content Labeling
    Story
    +2
    JUN 25JUN 25
    Tesla Launches Limited Robotaxi Service in Austin, Texas
    Story
    +9
    JUN 23JUN 23
    Study: AI Models May Blackmail, Sabotage to Avoid Shutdown
    Story
    +5
    JUN 21JUN 21
    MIT Study: ChatGPT Use May Harm Students' Brain Activity
    Story
    +8
    JUN 20JUN 20
    Study: AI Reasoning Models Emit 50X More CO2 Than Others
    Story
    +8
    JUN 20JUN 20
    'OpenAI Files' Report Details Governance, Safety Concerns
    Story
    +2
    JUN 19JUN 19
    EU Parliament Votes to Criminalize AI-Generated Child Abuse Content
    Story
    +5
    JUN 18JUN 18
    OpenAI Wins $200M Pentagon Contract for AI Defense Tools
    Story
    +19
    JUN 17JUN 17
    Report: UK University AI Cheating Cases Triple in One Year
    Story
    +7
    JUN 16JUN 16
    MIT Unveils 'SEAL' AI Framework for Self-Adapting Models
    Story
    JUN 16JUN 16
    Disney, Universal Sue AI Generator Midjourney Over Copyright
    Story
    +12
    JUN 12JUN 12
    Meta Invests $15B in Scale AI for Superintelligence Lab
    Story
    +9
    JUN 12JUN 12
    Atari 2600 Chess Game From 1977 Beats ChatGPT
    Story
    +2
    JUN 11JUN 11
    Apple Study Reveals AI Reasoning Models' Limitations
    Story
    +4
    JUN 10JUN 10
    UN: AI Boom Drives 150% Surge in Big Tech Carbon Emissions
    Story
    +12
    JUN 6JUN 6
    Report: Meta Plans Full AI Ad Creation by End of 2025
    Story
    +6
    JUN 3JUN 3
    Meta, Constellation Energy Sign 20-Year Nuclear Power Deal
    Story
    +8
    JUN 3JUN 3
    Neuralink Raises $650M as Brain Implant Trials Expand
    Story
    +6
    JUN 3JUN 3
    Yoshua Bengio Launches Nonprofit to Build 'Honest' AI Systems
    Story
    +8
    JUN 3JUN 3
    AI Startup Builder.ai Files for Bankruptcy
    Story
    +9
    JUN 3JUN 3
    Researchers: AI Test Predicts Which Men Benefit from Prostate Cancer Drug
    Story
    +6
    MAY 31MAY 31
    DeepSeek Launches New R1 Model
    Story
    +7
    MAY 30MAY 30