Iran Agrees to More Joint Nuclear Site Inspections
On Saturday, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, announced that Iran had agreed to expand joint inspections at the Fordow fuel enrichment plant and reinstall surveillance cameras and other monitoring equipment.
The IAEA director stated that Tehran agreed to increase inspections at the facility by 50% after the watchdog reported that up to 83.7% enriched uranium particles had been detected at the underground nuclear plant. He also confirmed that no "production or accumulation" of uranium had occurred at this enrichment level.
According to a joint statement from the IAEA and the Iran Atomic Energy Agency issued on Saturday, Tehran voiced its "readiness" to maintain collaboration and offer "further information and access to address the outstanding safeguards issues" related to its disputed nuclear activities.
Pro-Iran narrative
While the US and Israel are hyping the alleged Iranian nuclear threat to justify imposing new sanctions, Grossi's recent trip to Iran underscores Tehran's willingness to cooperate constructively with the IAEA. This is all the more remarkable given that Tehran has been transparent about the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, while Tel Aviv has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and doesn't allow inspections of its nuclear activities. Only if the IAEA maintains its autonomy and neutrality against those who seek to obstruct dialogue with Iran will there be a chance for fruitful negotiations.
Anti-Iran narrative
While Iran pretends to be engaged in constructive talks with the IAEA, it has advanced its uranium enrichment program behind the scenes to the point where it can produce enough material for a nuclear weapon within a few weeks. And if Tehran were to actually make the decision to secretly produce nuclear weapons, it would push the IAEA past its operational limits. Moreover, that Iran has become an incalculable security risk is underscored by Iran's support for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The international community must increase pressure to bring Tehran to its senses and lay the groundwork for credible talks with the IAEA.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 376: Ukraine Preparing Counter-Attack in Zaporizhzhia, Pro-Russia Official Says
Ukraine has amassed upwards of 30K troops in the Zaporizhzhia region in preparation for a spring counter-offensive, a pro-Russia official in the region claimed on Monday.
Vladimir Rogov, a Ukrainian who serves in Russia's administration of Zaporizhzhia — one of the four regions Russia claimed to have annexed last year — said: "If we speak about the numerical strength of militants along the engagement line ... there are a total of about 30-32K of them there." He added: "This obviously suggests that this [attempted offensive] will take place in late March, early April."
Meanwhile, as fighting for control of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut — known in Russia as Artyomovsk — continues, US military think tank the Institute for the Study of War assessed on Sunday that Ukrainian forces "are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal" from the city. However, it added that: "[i]t is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal." Ukrainian officials have not given any public indication of plans to withdraw at this stage.
Pro-Russia narrative
Artyomovsk is a strategically significant transport hub and logistical center for the Ukrainian army. Ukraine's forces have already sustained huge losses — including several of their best brigades — fighting to keep control of the city and Moscow's forces now have the upper hand on the ground. Artyomovsk will be a key victory for Russia in the wider battle for control of the Donbass.
Anti-Russia narrative
Even if Russian forces do gain control of Bakhmut, it would not represent a decisive shift in the war. The development would be much more of a symbolic than strategic victory and, while Russia continues to funnel troops and resources into Bakhmut in the hope of being able to publicize some positive news about the invasion, Kyiv is making a more considered strategic assessment of its troops' position in view of the wider conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
35 Arrested After Clashes at Proposed Atlanta Police Training Center
Amid ongoing environmental and civil rights demonstrations, Atlanta police arrested 35 people on Sunday after protesters allegedly entered and set fire to a construction site of the new Atlanta Public Safety Training Center, dubbed "Cop City" by its opponents.
Organizers and supporters say the clashes occurred during a music festival, alleging there was "indiscriminate police violence" against "Stop Cop City festival-goers." In contrast, police have stated "violent agitators used the cover of a peaceful protest" to launch their attack.
The construction site has been the scene of growing tensions between protesters opposed to both what they consider the militarization of the police and the center's development in the South River Forest — known as the "lungs of Atlanta."
Left narrative
The Atlanta Police Department claims it needs this center to help train police to protect the community while simultaneously shooting and arresting demonstrators. This is simply another example of a bloated government choosing to militarize law enforcement at the expense of the taxpayers who are terrorized by these so-called "public safety" officers. This is a microcosm of the national trend of wasting money on "security" while neglecting the people and land they're supposed to protect.
Right narrative
There is a dire need to boost police morale and resources in the wake of the 2020 George Floyd protests, which is why the duly elected city council voted to approve this new training center. Protesters have also been anything but peaceful. Having thrown homemade bombs and fired at cops, officers have justifiably responded with equal force and arrests. This is about protecting the safety of the public and building capacity among law enforcement public servants.
Bangladesh: Fire Destroys Rohingya Camp, Leaving 12K Homeless
On Sunday, a large fire ripped through a Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, destroying at least 2K shelters and leaving as many as 12K refugees without housing. As of Sunday, the cause of the fire was unknown and no casualties were reported.
The UN refugee agency stated that 90 community facilities, including hospitals and learning centers, were also destroyed, while local Superintendent of Police Mohammad Mahfuzul Islam said that those affected would be sheltered temporarily in community centers and mosques.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees provided no further details other than that Rohingya refugee volunteers were responding to the fire in the Balukhali camp at Ukhiya, with the agency staff and its partners backing their efforts.
Narrative A
The suffering of the Rohingya people is indescribable. The accommodations and conditions of the camp have been appalling and now the fire has destroyed countless homes and businesses, leaving people to face homelessness and uncertainty. Life can only improve in the camp if recovery includes homes made of more substantial and sturdy materials like steel and brick.
Narrative B
Following the five-year mark of refugees inhabiting Bangladesh, the government is coercing the refugees to return home. The National League for Democracy-led government and the Myanmar State Administrative Council have failed to secure a safe and humane environment in the Rakhine state. The Rohingya people want nothing more than to leave the barbed wire subpar encampments and return home but there are no safe options to do so.
Narrative C
This tragedy was about to happen — and that was exactly why Bangladesh was urgently asking for help from all relevant stakeholders to achieve a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis. Bangladesh is a small, highly populated country that faces already several other challenges, so the continued presence of more than 1M displaced people is neither reasonable nor sustainable.
Taiwan Warns China’s Military May Make ‘Sudden Entry’
Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng on Monday warned that the country is on alert for a "sudden entry" by the Chinese military into regions close to its territory amid rising military tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
While Taiwan hasn't reported any incidents of Chinese forces entering its contiguous zone, an area 44.4km (24 nautical miles) from its coast, Chiu alleged that China is "making such preparations."
Last year Taiwan shot down a civilian drone that entered its airspace near an islet off the Chinese coast. Taiwan has consistently vocalized its right to self-defense and counterattack if the Chinese military enters its territory.
Anti-China narrative
Taiwan is continuing to receive support from the West in a joint stand of contempt against the CCP's actions towards the state. Just as China's behavior concerning Hong Kong and its management of COVID has destroyed previous assumptions of its peaceful intentions, Beijing's belligerence and Xi Jinping's reckless actions — such as its defense spending — reveal its stance on the island, which becomes more internationally unpopular by the day.
Pro-China narrative
The hyperbole surrounding China's defense budget increase is baseless scaremongering. Despite economic slowdowns, the defense expenditures of numerous countries continue to grow. The US, for instance, has increased its own in an attempt to check China's rise. The West should remember that the Taiwan question is an internal dispute in which Beijing is seeking a peaceful solution, not a hegemony like other international actors.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that China will recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Delivers CPAC Speech
Former Pres. Donald Trump on Saturday served as the closing speaker at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which featured speeches from several ardent Trump supporters and cheering crowds in Washington.
Trump spoke on a variety of topics, including immigration, crime, the economy, and US foreign commitments – topics he has focused on since his first run for the presidency in 2016.
Trump rallied against both the Democratic and Republican parties, telling his supporters, “in 2016, I declared I am your voice. Today I add: I am your warrior. I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.”
Democratic narrative
Trump’s speech, like every other one before it, was filled with lies and misinformation. He’s incapable of speaking without uttering blatant falsehoods, which is unsurprising from a candidate who degrades and ridicules anyone who stands against him, even those within his own party — a self-sabotaging strategy that confirms he's unfit to lead the nation.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is continuing his political insurgency against the establishment and elite while making America great again. Though he uses strong language, everyone knows the country is approaching a point of no return, and he's the ideal candidate to steer it away from the edge, as seen by the overwhelming support he received during the event.
Republican narrative
Trump has his own style, and that's just part of how he plays politics. Regardless, the CPAC — overwhelmed by Trumpsters — isn't an accurate representation of GOP sentiment, which is moving on from him and should look to new young talent like Ron DeSantis. Though Trump did plenty of good things for his country, ultimately, he should step aside for this upcoming election.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 38% chance that Trump will win the presidency in 2024 if he runs against Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Nearly 200 Nations Agree to Protect 30% of the World's Oceans by 2030
On Saturday, international delegates at the Intergovernmental Conference on Marine Biodiversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction struck a landmark agreement and pledged to protect at least 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030.
The "High Seas Treaty" calls for a legal framework to establish marine protected areas, share the benefits of genetic resources of the world's oceans, and assess environmental impacts to ensure commercial activities are carried out sustainably. Nearly 200 countries agreed to the framework.
The treaty must be ratified by 60 countries for it to come into force. In a statement, the EU pledged €40M ($42M) as part of a Global Ocean Programme to facilitate rapid ratification and early implementation.
Narrative A
The agreement is a step in the right direction and has come just in time. The historic treaty, which finally establishes a legal mechanism to set up protected areas on the high seas, is crucial to enforce the "30x30 pledge" made by countries at the UN biodiversity conference in December, which would preserve 30% of Earth's land area by 2030. It can help reverse biodiversity losses, prevent possible impacts of deep-sea mining, ensure sustainable economic development, safeguard marine ecosystems, and allow humanity to transition towards a nature-positive world.
Narrative B
Though it is undoubtedly a significant milestone for conserving our oceans, countries still need to meet goals set in similar treaties in the past. Moreover, the treaty must first be ratified, and then it only enters into force once enough countries have signed up and legally passed it in their own nations. The challenge also lies in mobilizing funds, as no exact funding amount was included in the text, and finding ways to protect international waters, as most areas are highly inaccessible. There is a long way to go in seeing this agreement fully implemented.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that the European Union will meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Lockdown Files: Health Minister Wanted to 'Frighten' Britons into Compliance
Former UK health minister Matt Hancock suggested to an aide that they "frighten the pants off everyone" about COVID to ensure compliance with government restrictions, leaked text messages published in the Telegraph revealed over the weekend.
The message came in December 2020 when the government feared backlash to its plan to reverse a policy that would have relaxed the rules over the Christmas period. The aide suggested to Hancock: "Rather than doing too much forward signaling, we can roll pitch with the new strain."
Hancock added, "We frighten the pants off everyone with the new strain," to which the aide said, "Yep that's what will get proper behaviour change." Hancock then asked when they could "deploy" the announcement of a new COVID variant, which was publicly announced a day later.
Left narrative
While the public is right to demand answers to questions on whether the government acted appropriately during the COVID pandemic, the leak of these messages leads to a one-sided inquisition by those that were against lockdowns. What we need is an independent inquiry that can tackle these questions accurately and fairly, with proper public health context in mind.
Right narrative
What we see from the release of these text messages is that the government was consciously using irrational fear as a tool to make the public compliant with its COVID policies. Knowingly crippling the psyches of Britons for the sole purpose of retaining a public policy is inexcusable. Where were the ministerial voices of caution throughout this disastrous public health experiment?
California to End Business With Walgreens Over Abortion Pill Issue
On Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted that the state would cease doing business with Walgreens after the pharmacy chain announced that it wouldn't dispense abortion pills in 20 Republican states.
Walgreens made the announcement on Thursday, saying it wouldn't dispense mifepristone, a pill often used for abortions, following a letter from the states' Republican attorneys general explaining that the company could be breaking the law by dispensing the pill by mail.
The letter came just a couple of months after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) loosened restrictions to allow pharmacies to obtain certification to distribute the pill. Previously, it could only be obtained at specialty offices and clinics. Medication abortion makes up more than 50% of all US abortions.
Democratic narrative
Republicans are stooping to bullying in order to expand abortion bans beyond their legal reach. It's going to be difficult for pharmacies to deal with threats like these and navigate areas where state and federal laws conflict, but they should know that the Justice Department has their backs against any legal action taken by these attorneys general or lawmakers.
Republican narrative
It's reassuring to see Walgreens responding to the concerns of pro-life citizens and states advocating for the rights of unborn children. The Biden admin. might think mail-order pills are a way around state laws, but that just means states will have to hold companies accountable, as they are doing.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 4% chance that abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Nine Security Officers Killed in Suicide Attack
According to authorities in Pakistan's southwestern Baluchistan province, a suicide bomber attacked a truck transporting police personnel on Monday, killing at least nine and wounding 13 others.
The officers were reportedly returning to the provincial capital of Quetta after policing a festival. Pictures from the scene depict a crushed and overturned police truck.
Senior police official Abdul Hai Aamir told reporters that the attacker, who was riding a motorcycle, rammed his vehicle into the back of the truck before detonating the explosives.
Narrative A
In a cruel twist of fate, Pakistan is under threat from groups they once vocally supported in their fight against the US. Afghanistan has failed to take steps against militants, and Pakistan is helpless against insurgents launching attacks from their Taliban-controlled neighbor. They have reaped what they've sown regarding support for rogue terror groups. More innocent civilians are being victimized as a result of this foreign policy blunder.
Narrative B
The situation with Afghanistan, and their support or indifference to attacks originating from their country, is a reality that cannot be wished away. It would be foolish to disengage with Kabul over the security situation, as it's clear that a solution can only come from cooperation between the two nations. Pakistan will continue the fight against insurgents the best it can. While there is disappointment that Afghanistan is not taking measures against militant groups, Pakistan's fight is against terrorism, not Afghanistan.
China Announces Military Spending Increase
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has announced a rise in the nation's military spending by 7.2% and an official GDP growth target of about 5% for 2023. The news opened the Chinese Communist Party-led parliament's annual meeting on Sunday.
"China's economy is staging a steady recovery and demonstrating vast potential and momentum for further growth," the outgoing leader said. The gathering of the National People's Congress — which has drawn almost 3K delegates to China's capital Beijing — will take place until the end of the week.
Goldman Sachs has reflected that the GDP target was "not challenging" given China's poor economic performance in 2022 — if Beijing hits the target, it would still indicate a recovery from the growth of 3% seen last year amid a strict "zero-COVID" policy that has only recently been reversed.
Pro-China narrative
Sunday's announcement reflects confidence in the economic recovery of Beijing. China is set to return to its place as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally, despite the downturn expected across the rest of the world.
Anti-China narrative
China has shown its hand with a modest growth target, revealing that leaders are aiming to avoid missing their economic goal for a second year running — even if it means less of an overall boost to a flagging global economy. Beijing is making a slow recovery following the politics of COVID.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that China's GDP will be at least 16.1 (trillion constant 2015 international dollars) in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.