Ex-US President Donald Trump Indicted by NY Grand Jury
On Thursday, a New York grand jury indicted former president Donald Trump over hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign, making him the first former US president to face criminal charges.
According to documents filed in Los Angeles Federal Court, Michael Cohen — Trump's former personal lawyer and fixer — signed a non-disclosure agreement with Daniels to hide her consensual sexual encounter with Trump in 2006 in exchange for a $130k payment. The encounter took place in the year after Trump married his current wife Melania.
Pro-Trump narrative
Donald Trump is a victim of a Democratic witch hunt to suppress his influence and reclaim the presidency. Democrats have successfully weaponized the criminal justice system, which is now focused on political vengeance and punishing a political opponent instead of keeping Americans safe. This is not an indictment of a crime, it is an indictment of a failed nation.
Democratic narrative
While it is not illegal to silence someone so as to protect your reputation and marriage, covering up the action by falsifying business records is a criminal offense. The indictment is a testament to the fact that no one is above the law, no matter how powerful they are. Alleged breaches of campaign finance law carried out by the Trump campaign also deserve to be taken seriously.
Narrative C
This indictment has set the stage for a 2024 presidential contest unlike any other. Being charged with — or found guilty of — a crime does not disqualify the 45th president of the United States from running for office again. An indictment may even make Trump more popular, since he is an expert at portraying himself as an anti-establishment figure against his opponents' weight. This development alone will not hand Trump victory in 2024, but it does lay the ground for an unpredictable presidential contest.
Nerd narrative
There's a 38% chance that Trump will win if the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Turkish Parliament Ratifies Finland’s NATO Membership
On Thursday, Turkey's parliament approved a bill that would allow Finland to join NATO, clearing the way for the Nordic country to become part of the Western military alliance as the war in Ukraine grinds on.
All 276 members of Turkey's parliament that were present voted in favor of the country's accession to NATO, days after Hungary's parliament also endorsed Helsinki's bid. The Turkish parliament was the last among the 30 members of the alliance to ratify Finland's membership.
Narrative A
The Turkish parliament's positive vote to ratify Finland's membership will help strengthen the alliance and make it safer. While the accession of Sweden would also be a welcome move, NATO isn't there yet. Erdoğan's hard line against Sweden has broad support within Turkey, but perhaps things will change after its upcoming election.
Narrative B
By refusing to accept Sweden into NATO, Erdoğan looks more and more like an opportunist than the leader of one of NATO's most important members, pushing his own domestic agenda rather than that of the alliance. By simply asking too much of Sweden, he endangers the whole bloc.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
Report: Egyptian Army Has Turned Sinai Schools Into Military Bases
A report by the UK-based Sinai Foundation for Human Rights (SFHR), shared with The Guardian, claims that the Egyptian army, in its 10-year fight against militants in the Sinai, has taken over 37 schools and transformed them into military bases, while dozens more have been destroyed.
Using satellite images, video, photos, and testimony from witnesses who live in the sparsely populated area, the SFHR claims that the army carried out the "unnecessary targeting of certain schools," causing "community-wide shock," with 59 schools being destroyed in clashes with the militants.
Establishment-critical narrative
As Sisi continues to violate human rights throughout Egypt, including his brutal campaign against militants in the Sinai, it's important to remember how he came to power. Ultimately, Sisi is a US and Israeli stooge whose primary job is to repress democracy in Egypt and maintain Western geopolitical interests in the region. The only way to save Egypt and stop the horrors is to end support for Sisi and the Egyptian military.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though it would be great if the US got to pick global leaders — something it is often accused of — the reality is that the US has to work with what it's got. In Egypt, though Sisi is likely a tyrant, he has kept the country stable, especially in the face of the post-2011 chaos brought on by the Muslim Brotherhood. To preserve regional stability, the US will have to grit its teeth and deal with an authoritarian in the Egyptian presidency.
India Temple Well Collapse Kills At Least 36
On Thursday, a floor covering a 40-feet deep stepwell at a temple in central India collapsed, killing at least 36 people and injuring over a dozen more, local officials said as rescue teams continued to search for the missing on Friday.
A large crowd of devotees gathered at Indore's Beleshwar Mahadev Temple to celebrate the Hindu festival of Ram Navami when the concrete slab they were standing on collapsed under their weight in the state of Madhya Pradesh.
Narrative A
Questions must be asked of both the temple trust and the Indore civic body. The tragedy could have been averted had the authorities properly acted on complaints filed by residents who alleged that the temple was built on a stepwell in an encroached park last year. Despite likely knowing the structure wasn't secure, officials failed to follow through on any action, and no amount of compensation will bring justice to the victims.
Narrative B
Religion shouldn't be used to grab public land for the benefit of a few greedy individuals. The municipal and government bodies — having ordered the structure's removal — must be empowered to prevent unauthorized constructions from being carried out under the garb of religious structures, as political interests and religious sentiments often render authorities helpless.
Kyiv Suburb of Bucha Marks One Year Since Liberation
The Kyiv suburb of Bucha, where Ukraine alleges Russian forces committed scores of atrocities in their short-lived occupation of the town in the first weeks of the war, marked the first anniversary of its liberation on Friday.
Marking the day, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleged that Russian forces killed upwards of 1.4K civilians and committed more than 9K war crimes in 33 days of Bucha's occupation. "365 days since it is a free Ukrainian сity once again," he said. "A symbol of the atrocities of the occupying country’s army. We will never forgive. We will punish every perpetrator."
Anti-Russia narrative
Bucha has become indelibly linked with Russian war crimes and atrocities committed throughout the course of this war. Russian forces killed hundreds of civilians in the city — some of whom were executed at point-blank range — while scores more were tortured and underwent other forms of ill treatment.
Pro-Russia narrative
The events of Bucha were staged to vilify Russia's armed forces. Worse still, they took place when Ukraine had agreed to basic principles of a peace agreement before they suddenly changed course. Kyiv's backers in the West wanted the war with Russia to continue for the sake of their own foreign policy goals.
Nerd narrative
There's a 43% chance that at least 100k Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Japan to Restrict Semiconductor Equipment Exports
On Friday, Yasutoshi Nishimura, Japan's trade and industry minister, announced that export controls will be imposed on 23 types of chipmaking equipment divided into six categories, requiring Japanese companies to seek export permissions for all regions.
The controls — reportedly meant to ensure the equipment isn't diverted for military purposes — include exceptions for the 42 territories Tokyo recognizes as having adequate export measures, including South Korea, Taiwan, and the US.
Pro-China narrative
Japan is capitulating to US pressure by formulating this discriminatory policy as Washington unilaterally weaponizes trade and technology issues against China in order to protect its own tech hegemony. But given the proven resilience of the Chinese tech sector, Japanese companies will suffer the most from Tokyo's decision to be a US pawn.
Anti-China narrative
Restricting Chinese access to advanced semiconductors is a matter of security to the democratic world. It’s crucial to halt China's development of advanced AI systems deployable for military and intelligence uses, and limiting its access to leading-edge chipmaking machinery from the US, Netherlands, and Japan will even the playing field in the mounting Cold War.
Nerd narrative
There's an 11% chance that chips covered by the 2022 US export controls will be exported to China before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US House Passes GOP Energy Agenda
On Thursday, the Republican-majority US House voted 225-204 to pass a wide range of energy proposals that would boost oil and gas production, increase the mining of critical minerals, and change the National Environmental Policy Act's project approval process.
Republicans hope the legislation, known as the Lower Energy Costs Act, will reduce energy costs for Americans by increasing energy independence.
Republican narrative
This bill is part of Republicans’ fight against Biden’s senseless permitting red tape. The US needs to be less reliant on other countries for energy, and this legislation would go a long way in lowering costs for Americans. Even some clean-energy trade groups agree the permitting reform in the bill will benefit their industry.
Democratic narrative
This legislation is nothing but a free-for-all for big oil and the rest of the fossil fuel industry. If Republicans really want to provide Americans with better energy policies, they should negotiate with Democrats on a policy that benefits citizens while addressing climate change.
US May Include Slave Descendant Query in Census
The US Census Bureau is reportedly considering whether to ask Black Americans if they are descendants of slaves, as opposed to immigrants, as an update to race and ethnicity questions already asked by the survey.
The idea of expanding racial categories comes as some believe society too often conflates the experiences of descendants of slaves with those of Black immigrants, as well as amid a growing push to quantify who would be eligible to receive potential government reparations.
Left narrative
As White Americans finally come to grips with the grievances of their Black neighbors, officials at every level of government are rightly considering ways to pay for the country's sinful past. While there is no agreed-upon solution, programs such as $300k cash payouts to student loan forgiveness and down payment grants are all possibilities. Though technically freed from slavery over a century ago, the free labor forced upon Blacks back then has never actually been paid back.
Right narrative
Behind their rhetorical tactics of helping the less fortunate and making up for America's sinful past, the Democrats and left-wing activists are actually trying to worsen race relations for political gain. Nothing good can come from telling White people — whose ancestors, let alone themselves, never owned slaves — that they have to pay Black Americans who were never slaves exorbitant amounts of money in reparations. The argument for reparations is as incoherent as it is unethical, and those being gaslighted are waking up to this fact slowly but surely.
Wimbledon Reverses Ban on Russian, Belarusian Players
The All England Club (AELTC) has lifted a ban imposed last year on Russian and Belarusian players at Wimbledon, it was announced Friday. Their participation will be subject to a number of conditions, including that they feature as "neutral athletes."
Although the players will now be allowed to compete in July's Grand Slam, they must refrain from expressing support for the invasion of Ukraine and will be restricted from receiving funding from their home governments.
Narrative A
The AELTC still totally condemns the illegal invasion of Ukraine and stands in solidarity with the Ukrainian people. However, careful consideration of all factors has concluded that a reversal of this ban is the most appropriate course of action at this time. Russian and Belarusian athletes — some of whom do not even support the invasion — should not be punished for the Kremlin's decisions.
Narrative B
It is crucial that Russian and Belarusian athletes continue to be banned from Wimbledon for as long as innocent Ukrainians are being killed. The situation in Ukraine is the same as it was when this ban was imposed; as nothing has changed on the ground, nothing should change with the AELTC. It is crucial that Wimbledon uses its far-reaching brand and platform to show solidarity with Kyiv.
UK Joins Trans-Pacific Trade Pact
On Friday, the UK announced it has agreed to join an 11-country trans-Pacific trade deal, named the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) — a step PM Rishi Sunak's office called the biggest trade deal since Brexit.
The CPTPP was established in 2018 to ease restrictions on trade between members as well as tariffs on goods. The trade area covers a market of approximately 500M people and, according to government estimates, will add 0.08% to the size of the UK's economy.
Right narrative
Joining the CPTPP couldn't have been done while a part of the EU, and it's the first substantive evidence of progress since Brexit. The knock-on effect of the deal will aid the UK's longer-term economic plans and is strategically important to reduce China's influence in the region. Britain's businesses will now be able to seize the benefits of trade from the other side of the world while continuing to push against authoritarian regimes as well as focusing on a trade deal with the US.
Left narrative
While hardcore Brexiters would like to pretend that the deal is a significant payoff for the decision to leave the EU, the agreement holds no real economic benefit. A trade deal so contentious that it united Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders in US opposition to its entrance, it only offers a 0.08% GDP increase, which is meaningless to the UK's future. No matter how this is portrayed, it isn't the reality of taking back control that Brexit promised.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK will apply to rejoin the EU by September 2048, according to the Metaculus prediction community.