Biden, House GOP Reach Tentative Debt Ceiling Deal
On Saturday, an agreement in principle was struck between the White House and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on a deal to raise the debt limit. It is hoped the 'Fiscal Responsibility Act' will steer the country away from a national default after weeks of heated partisan negotiations.
Biden and McCarthy on Sunday settled the final elements of the deal before releasing the legislative text to House lawmakers that evening. The Senate will have until June 5 to consider whether to support the legislation, or risk the US defaulting on its debts.
The agreement in principle will lift the debt limit until January 2025, while keeping non-defense discretionary spending roughly flat in 2024 and capping it at a 1% increase in FY 2025.
Democratic narrative
In their obstinate push for cuts to federal spending, McCarthy-led House Republicans have threatened to crush the US economy by forcing the country to an unprecedented default. However, this agreement in principle reveals that their goal was exclusively to punish low-income Americans, as the changes will do virtually nothing to reduce government spending.
Republican narrative
Democrats have driven the country to the brink of a financial catastrophe, yet McCarthy has betrayed America by allowing the Biden admin. to borrow an unlimited amount of money without imposing any restrictions on federal spending. This deal is a complete disaster that puts the financial future of the US at risk.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that the United States will default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Turkey's Erdoğan Wins Re-Election
Turkey's Supreme Election Council has declared Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the winner of Sunday's presidential runoff against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, extending his 20-year rule for a further five-year term.
With 99.85% of the ballots counted, preliminary results on Sunday night showed the incumbent with a four-point lead over his opponent after receiving 52.16% of the roughly 54M votes. Voter turnout was 84.22%.
Following the announcement of his re-election, Erdoğan addressed his supporters from his presidential palace in Ankara. He pledged to cut inflation, rebuild the cities that collapsed in the Feb. 6 earthquakes, and promised he would not free former pro-Kurdish party head Selahattin Demirtas from jail.
Narrative A
Under the leadership of Erdoğan and his AK Party, Turkey has broken away from a long record of corrupt, ineffective coalition governments to become a regional and international reference in several sectors, including governance and public services. The re-election of Erdoğan will preserve the integrity of the state ahead of the upcoming second centenary of the republic.
Narrative B
While it is yet to be seen how Ankara will balance its deepening ties with Moscow and its NATO membership in the upcoming years, another five-year term under Erdoğan will surely mean continuation of current policy. As divisions between the world's democracies and autocracies become increasingly stark, Turkey is dangerously backsliding on democratic institutions and civil liberties.
Nerd narrative
There's a 98% chance that Turkey will be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Japan on Alert as N. Korea Plans to Launch 'Satellite'
Japan on Monday put its ballistic missile defenses on alert, vowing to use its Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) or Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) to destroy any projectile that threatened its territory.
This comes as Japan's Defense Ministry issued an order to shoot down any North Korean missile that enters its territory after Pyongyang notified Tokyo of its intention to launch a "satellite" in the coming two weeks.
According to the Japanese Coast Guard, the notice stated that the launch window was from May 31 to June 11 and that it could affect waters in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and east of the island of Luzon in the Philippines.
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea's satellite launch is a dangerous provocation that cannot be allowed to proceed. A working spy satellite would strengthen Pyongyang's ability to conduct a pre-emptive strike as well as monitor potential incoming threats from the US and South Korea.
Establishment-critical narrative
North Korea's satellite program is simply defensive in nature. Pyongyang has a right to exercise its sovereignty and justifiable self-defense in response to the confrontational moves made by Washington and Seoul. A successful launch will help defend North Korea against future attacks by the hegemonic US and South Korea.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Japan Self-Defense Forces will have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
London Police to Stop Responding to Mental Health Calls
Starting this upcoming September, London's Metropolitan Police (Met) will stop responding to emergency calls related to mental health incidents unless there is an "immediate threat to life."
Met commissioner Sir Mark Rowley said the decision was made due to police officers, who reportedly have collectively spent 10K hours per month dealing with mental health calls, are not the "right people" to deal with such a situation, claiming they are "failing" those in need by not sending "medical professionals."
Rowley continued in the letter, written to health and social care services, by stressing the need for the Met to "redress the imbalance of responsibility" and urging health services to take "primacy" for caring for the mentally ill.
Narrative A
Reports show that the police, as they have been increasingly called upon to assist those in need concerning mental health, have done well. However, the police cannot be the fix for a broken system. If people are to get the help they really deserve, there needs to be a radical longer-term solution involving other public services. It's not fair to law enforcement to be the last resort for these types of calls.
Narrative B
The move by the Met is alarming and raises questions surrounding what the policy change will mean for vulnerable individuals. In reality, it will be practically difficult to enforce a sweeping ban on providing mental healthcare, and whether an officer will act on someone’s distress will likely be based upon day-to-day subjectivity.
Explosions Reported Across Ukraine Following Further Russian Attacks
Multiple explosions were reported across Ukraine after Russia launched further drone and missile attacks into the country in the early hours of Monday.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, said, "Last night, the Russian occupiers attacked military facilities and critical infrastructure of Ukraine with cruise missiles and attack drones."
Ukraine's air force said Russia launched 40 missiles — 37 of which it claimed to have destroyed — while further claiming that 29 of the 35 drones said to be deployed were also shot down.
Pro-establishment narrative
As this war has dragged into its 15th month, Russia continues to terrorize Ukrainian civilians with regular nighttime attacks, and has now moved to daytime attacks as well. While missile defenses have become far more effective, a risk remains from falling missile debris, and everyone's got a story of how tired they feel.
Pro-Russia narrative
Whenever Ukraine is ready, Russia is prepared to enter peace talks to end this conflict. However, Ukraine must accept certain preconditions such as demilitarization and dropping its ambitions of joining NATO. The alternative is that these attacks will continue.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
First Chinese-Built Passenger Jet Enters Service
The C919, China's first domestically-built large passenger jet, completed its first commercial flight on Sunday, flying from Shanghai to Beijing without complications under the China Eastern Airlines carrier.
The state-backed Commercial Aviation Corp of China (COMAC) has been developing the plane for 15 years, which presents the first Chinese challenge to Western aircraft manufacturers.
According to COMAC’s deputy general manager, Zhang Yujin, the company has received at least 1.2k orders as of last January, with the company hoping to expand annual production capacity to 150 models in the next five years.
Pro-China narrative
China has come a long way from the "800 million shirts for one Boeing" mindset during the early days of China's modernization, with the country finally able to start wresting control of the skies from Western manufacturers. This is a huge step forward for China's industrial independence and is a testament to the stellar technological and economic progress made.
Anti-China narrative
Most of the components used to build the C919 are imported from abroad, making proclamations of economic independence little more than patriotic puffery. What's worse, there is a strong case to be made that the plane was designed using stolen technology, as China's advanced industrial espionage program has been known to target Western aviation companies.
Report: Haitian Vigilante Movement Leading to a Drop in Gang Violence
The Haitian human rights group CARDH released a report Sunday saying that violence committed by armed gangs in Haiti has fallen "drastically" — with at least 160 suspected criminals killed in the last month — since the emergence of a vigilante justice movement that formed during the simmering humanitarian crisis.
The report added that, since the "Bwa Kale" movement began, there were "almost no" recorded kidnappings over the past month and a decline in gang-linked murders from 146 during the first three weeks of April to 43 this month. One survey found 70% of Haitians support the group.
CARDH said that the city of Port-au-Prince is where most vigilante killings are taking place. Lynchings, stonings, beatings, and burnings are common forms of killings in the city in which 60% is controlled by gangs.
Pro-establishment narrative
As the UN has already called for, the international community needs to step up and provide military assistance to Haiti if it wishes to ever defeat the gangs destroying the nation. Jamaica is the only country to offer troops so far, but that will not be enough to save a country whose capital city is overwhelmingly controlled by violent armed groups. After first being skeptical of another peacekeeping mission after the US brought cholera to the island, the Haitian people's minds are changing, and the world should change its stance along with them.
Establishment-critical narrative
Establishment international bodies, including the governments and media outlets that helped dismantle the nation in the first place, are now calling for blunt-force intervention in Haiti. What these people don't understand, or pretend to not understand, is that the Haitian people can revive their country on their own if they were only given the initial tools —for example, sanctioning the Americans and Haitians profiting from the violence — to get started. Haitian society is willing and ready to bring this era of chaos to an end, but the global community seems content to just take a back seat.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Haiti will become a World Bank upper middle-income country by January 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Belfast Auction to List Hitler's Pencil
Bloomfield Auctions in Belfast is set to auction off a silver-plated pencil that purportedly belonged to Adolf Hitler at its upcoming event that will also feature a signed photo of the Nazi dictator and an 1869 hand-written pardon from Queen Victoria for Irish rebels.
The pencil is thought to be a gift from Hitler’s romantic partner Eva Braun for his 52nd birthday on April 20, 1941, and is estimated to sell for between £50K ($61K) and £80K ($98K).
The pencil, which has a German inscription of the name “Eva” with the initials “AH” at the bottom, has stirred much controversy, but the auction house’s Managing Director Karl Bennett says the item gives a glimpse into the extremely hidden personal life of Hitler.
Narrative A
Selling Nazi memorabilia, or anything belonging to Adolf Hitler, serves to memorialize a brutal regime that massacred millions of Jewish people. Some countries have laws against selling Nazi items, but the UK does not. This has led to people making profits off items belonging to some of the most evil people in human history. Profiting off possessions from the Nazi regime is a slap in the face to the Jewish community.
Narrative B
Auctioning items that belonged to Nazis or Adolf Hitler in no way honors or promotes the heinous acts they committed. The sale of such items should be allowed because World War II was one of the most significant events in human history, and people should be allowed to preserve artifacts, even if they are from unspeakably dark times. While it's a very sensitive subject, we must be able to separate our strong condemnation of evil from the right to preserve history.
Texas GOP Passes Bills Focusing on Election Administration
The majority-Republican Texas state legislature on Sunday passed several bills to increase penalties for illegal voting and expand state oversight of local elections, specifically in the Democrat-dominated Harris County. They will now head to Gov. Greg Abbott's office for his signature.
One bill, called SB 1933, would authorize the Texas Secretary of State to "order administrative oversight" of a county elections office for complaints surrounding or cause to believe there’s an ongoing series of election administration or voter registration issues.
Another bill may lead Texas to withdraw from the Electronic Registration Information Center, which was formed in 2012 to help states maintain accurate voter rolls, identify instances of potential fraud, and contact people so they can register to vote. Over half of US states belong to the association.
Democratic narrative
The Texas GOP is using election lies to win political points with its base and take control of the state's largest Democratic district. With little evidence of any election fraud in recent years, Gov. Abbott and his hand-picked Secretary of State are trying to throw Harris County into disarray just before it holds its mayoral election — and then give themselves the power to "oversee" what they deem is potential voter fraud. This is a dangerous power grab that violates Texas' Constitution and the sovereignty of its local election officers.
Republican narrative
These laws are not power grabs but rather a reasonable response to Harris County election administrators' failure to send out millions of ballots to voters by election day 2022. If the Democrats wish to discuss voter suppression, they should think about how their election officers failed to provide the physical ballots necessary for Texans to cast their votes. The legislature has the power and the duty to ensure its constituents' voting rights are not at the mercy of incompetent, if not malicious, local politicians.
Texas House Votes to Impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton
On Saturday, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach longtime state Attorney General Ken Paxton on charges of corruption — including abuse of power and retaliation against whistleblowers. Paxton is now temporarily suspended from his role while he awaits a Senate trial.
The GOP-led House voted 121-23 in favor of impeaching the Republican Paxton, with all 23 “no” votes coming from Republicans who called the hearing “indefensible and unethical.” Paxton also called the impeachment a “politically motivated sham.”
However, the 20 articles of impeachment cite Paxton’s 2015 securities fraud indictment and his relationship with Austin real estate developer Nate Paul, who donated $25K to Paxton’s campaign. Paul asked Paxton to intervene in an FBI probe and Texas House investigators say the Attorney General circumvented Texas policies to help Paul.
Narrative A
Paxton's sham impeachment hearing served as a great reminder of which Texas officials are truly on the side of America First and which ones are institutional shills. The Trump revolution showed that most politicians are actually on the same team and that the real divide is establishment vs anti-establishment. Texas RINOs and Democrats are now working together to remove Paxton because he is one of the few officials who care about securing America’s border and putting America first.
Narrative B
Years of corruption and abuse of power were too much to ignore as the Texas House voted to impeach Attorney General Paxton. This issue is not about partisanship or ideology, but about maintaining the integrity of the Texas government and the office of the Attorney General. Paxton has been involved in multiple criminal cases and can no longer be Attorney General.