DeSantis Launches 2024 Bid on Twitter
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Wednesday on the Twitter Spaces forum that he will be running for the Republican ticket for the 2024 US presidential election. The announcement experienced technical difficulties on the platform that immediately drew fire from GOP rival Donald Trump and US Pres. Joe Biden.
In DeSantis's launch video released earlier in the day, he said things such as "Crime infests our cities," "Righting the ship requires restoring sanity to our society," and argued that he "chose facts over fear, education over indoctrination, [and] law and order over rioting and disorder."
During his audio-only interview with co-hosts [and Silicon Valley icons] Elon Musk and David Sacks — which reached 600K-plus listeners after first enduring technical issues — DeSantis touted his resume of banning critical race theory in schools, his legal battle with Disney, and touched on issues such as fighting gun control.
Democratic narrative
The Twitter tech issue debacle sums up perfectly the disorganized nature of both the DeSantis campaign and the GOP race in general. The governor is trying to tout his culture war accomplishments while simultaneously seeking the approval of the Trump base, though it doesn't help that he polls better among college-educated voters than non-educated. As for distancing himself from Trump, DeSantis also promised to build the wall, a clear imitation of the former president. The GOP is still stuck between a rock and a Donald Trump.
Anti-Trump narrative
The most important question to ask when running for president is can you win the general election, and the answer is certainly in DeSantis' favor right now. Donald Trump may be leading in the primary polls, but only DeSantis has proven capable when it comes to defeating the incumbent Biden in swing states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. The GOP needs a big comeback win in 2024, and DeSantis is the shrewd, next-generation administrator to lead the party into the future.
Pro-Trump narrative
After months of "experts" claiming Trump could only win the primary, the tide seems to be shifting. Trump will undoubtedly crush DeSantis in the primary, but recent polls suggest he could even beat Biden by four points in the general election. This is because voters understand that, under Trump, the country was strong economically and from a security standpoint. We all know Biden only upholds the deep state and woke policies — the numbers also show rust belt voters are too unsure of rookie contender DeSantis to give him their full support.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canada, Saudi Arabia to Restore Diplomatic Relations
Saudi Arabia and Canada announced on Wednesday that they would resume diplomatic relations and appoint new ambassadors, breaking five years of poor relations after a dispute over human rights severely strained ties between them.
In separate statements, both nations' foreign ministries said they intended to restore diplomatic relations to the "previous level," with Ottawa announcing that it had appointed Jean-Philippe Linteau as its new ambassador to Riyadh.
A Canadian government source familiar with the matter reportedly said that as a result of the agreement, punitive trade measures against Saudi Arabia, which was Canada's largest regional export market in 2021 at $1.65B, will be lifted.
Narrative A
Despite Saudi Arabia's questionable human rights record, Ottawa made the right decision in resuming diplomatic relations. It was Saudi Arabia's aggressive response to Canada's justified criticism of the detention of human rights activists that led to the rupture in the first place. Bin Salman, however, has begun to focus his country's economic policies on attracting foreign investment and tourism, and Canada welcomes this move. Common interests should not be overshadowed by disagreements, and only a solid foundation for dialogue will lead to understanding and change.
Narrative B
The Canada-Saudi Arabia rapprochement fits into Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman's recent diplomatic spree to polish his image and position the kingdom as a major player in regional and international politics. However, Saudi Arabia continues to crack down on free expression and human rights activists. While some activists were released in 2018, many remain in detention, and more have been detained in the past year. Canada should be careful not to put its interests before its values when dealing with Saudi Arabia.
UN: 500 Migrants Adrift in Mediterranean
On Thursday, the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that a Europe-bound vessel from Libya carrying approximately 500 migrants is in distress in the Mediterranean Sea, alleging that Italian and Maltese authorities have so far not responded to rescue calls.
The IOM's warning echoes those of several non-profits, with Alarm Phone – an NGO that alerts authorities when migrant boats are in distress — first reporting the vessel's condition on Tuesday.
The vessel has been at sea for several days, and there have been reports that it's experiencing engine failures.
Left narrative
Southern Europe is currently in the middle of a refugee crisis. The irregular border crossings into the EU across the Mediterranean have quadrupled in the first quarter of 2023 compared to last year. What are the authorities doing? Malta doesn't respond to distress calls, and Italy is pushing back boats to Libya. It's a deliberate hands-off policy that sees innocent people drown. This perpetual cycle of abuse must end.
Right narrative
The refugee and migration problem in the Mediterranean has exposed a solidarity crisis in the EU. There's no mechanism in place to share the responsibility for hosting migrants. As a consequence, the countries on the southern border are overburdened by an continual influx of migrants and forced to argue with the other nations in the north over which of them should host asylum seekers who reach Europe's shores. Italy and other southern nations can only rescue so many.
Paralyzed Man Walks Again After Brain, Spine Implants
On Wednesday, a proof-of-concept study published in the journal Nature revealed how a Dutch man paralyzed by chronic tetraplegia was enabled — in community settings — to stand and walk naturally with the help of brain and spinal cord implants.
Gert-Jan Oskam, the 40-year-old patient, was told he would never walk again after his legs, arms, and trunk were impaired following a cycling accident in China 12 years ago.
However, after doctors inserted two disc-shaped implants into his skull, which read his brain signals and send instructions to two sensors attached to a helmet on his head, Oskam could initiate movement his leg and foot muscles by thinking via a second implant in his spine.
Narrative A
Several advances in specialized spinal cord injury treatment have occurred in recent decades, but this latest experiment is a medical first that has succeeded in changing an individual’s life and giving them some level of independent mobility. The brain-spine interface used an artificial intelligence thinking decoder to interpret Oskam's intentions and allowed him to walk naturally after 12 years; clearly this is an indicator of the potential of AI in revolutionizing medical treatment.
Narrative B
While futurist technology may eventually help many more spinal cord injury and stroke patients with paralysis and mobility issues, there are many challenges that may hinder its real-world application. The treatment is still experimental and is many years away from being widely available to paralyzed patients. Moreover, the procedure is invasive and requires multiple surgeries. The use of this kind of AI technology in medicine must be met with some skepticism, as wider employment of the innovation comes with its own collection of moral, medical, and technological risks.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the US FDA will authorize 1,000 AI/ML-enabled medical devices by September, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community,
Report: 14M Syrian Refugees at Risk of Losing Homes
According to a report from the nonprofit watchdog Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) released on Thursday, as many as 14M Syrian refugees face massive obstacles to returning to their homes as the Syrian state has the authority to lawfully seize land and property.
The report claims the laws in question principally target three groups: 12.3M forcibly displaced persons, 115K forcibly disappeared persons, and 500K victims who have yet to be registered as dead in the civil registry.
The Syrian laws, passed in 2012, 2015, and 2018, reportedly targeted opposition strongholds, empowered administrative units to deduct land from private properties outside zoning areas, and allowed the government to re-register property ownership if their proprietors failed to claim their lands.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Syrian regime's cynical use of legal procedures to appropriate land from refugees is appalling and is a significant hurdle for refugees returning home. The regime systematically destroyed opposition areas and has now appropriated the land for development by pro-regime actors. This criminal regime must be held accountable by the international community.
Establishment-critical narrative
The refugee issue must be dealt with systematically, and one of the first steps to alleviate the suffering of Syrians is the removal of sanctions. How can refugees return to Syria when the government cannot deliver relief or rebuild after 12 years of war? Cooperation with international and regional actors is necessary to solve this issue, and global sanctions are making humanitarian suffering worse.
UK: Net Migration Hits Record 606K
According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the nation received a record 606K net migrants last year, driven by non-EU nationals, refugees under the government's new Ukraine visa program, and those migrating for work and education.
Despite four years of prime ministers promising to curb migration, this represents a 24% increase from 488K the year prior, with total long-term immigration estimated at around 1.2M in 2022 compared to a total of 557K leaving the UK.
The government has also emphasized that many new arrivals are from Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Afghanistan, with the number of people arriving through humanitarian routes increasing from 9% in 2021 to 19%.
Right narrative
The Conservative Party’s immigration goal is in line with what the public needs and wants, which is why Braverman is clamping down on the countless immigrants abusing the system. While a small, calculated number of students and workers are necessary for the economy, the government must not leave current citizens out to dry by replacing them with new arrivals who only cross the border to gain access to British education and jobs.
Left narrative
Brexit accomplished what economists and others predicted a fall in traditional EU immigration and a rise in non-EU, lower-skilled workers. This has left the nation grasping for workers in many sectors, though at the same time hasn't increased the wages of the existing population. At this point, the government shouldn't try to hinder immigration anymore and allow those who wish to work in the UK to do so freely so the economy can rebuild itself in the wake of the pandemic.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK will reapply to join the EU by January 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Germany Enters Recession as Consumer Spending Tumbles
Germany’s economy has underperformed forecasts, shrinking by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023 after contracting by 0.5% in the final three months of 2022. These two consecutive periods of contraction mean Europe's largest economy has entered a recession.
Germany’s Federal Statistical Office initially predicted that the economy would narrowly avoid a technical recession with gross domestic product (GDP) stagnating in the quarter. However, unrelenting inflation caused increased prices and a resulting decrease in consumer spending.
Household expenditure was down 1.2% in 2023’s first quarter as families needed to save money to account for soaring energy prices. While gas has become more expensive, the price of natural gas has returned to levels from before the Russia-Ukraine war.
Narrative A
Germany’s economy is collapsing and, while some German bankers and bureaucrats may try to project confidence in a swift recovery, there's no evidence to suggest that Germany’s economic outlook will improve. German leaders have shown they have no idea how to tackle inflation, and unfortunately, consumers will be bearing the burden of high prices for the foreseeable future.
Narrative B
While it's disappointing to see that Germany’s economy has met the technical definition of a recession, there's no reason to panic. Investments continue to grow, and the European Central Bank will continue its fight against inflation. Poor GDP growth is definitely not a positive, but it’s not the primary concern as Berlin looks to lower prices and increase consumer spending — these actions will bring the entire economy back to normal.
Report: UN Official, Others in Armenia Hacked by Pegasus Spyware
A group of researchers on Thursday published a report alleging that 12 individuals in Armenia, including journalists, human rights activists, and at least one UN official, were hacked by cyber-intelligence firm NSO Group's spyware Pegasus between October 2020 and December 2022.
While the researchers didn't tie the hacking to a specific government or entity, they reportedly found some circumstantial evidence linking it to the long-running military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
In addition to the UN official, other individuals allegedly targeted include then-Armenian official ombudsman Kristinne Grigoryan, two Radio Free Europe journalists, and a former foreign ministry spokesperson, among others.
Narrative A
The NSO Group refuses to engage with or acknowledge the overwhelming forensic evidence tying Pegasus spyware to many cases of human rights abuses and oppressive regimes. This usage of spyware shows the risk of the technology being used to fuel geopolitical conflicts — this should alarm everyone.
Narrative B
NSO follows all industry policies, religiously investigating credible allegations of misuse of its technologies and terminating when appropriate. The problem of abuse of surveillance technologies doesn't lie with the company, but rather the fact that there needs to be a global regulatory cyber intelligence framework to address the responsibility of governmental operators.
Oath Keepers Founder Sentenced to 18 Years
Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes was sentenced on Thursday to 18 years in prison for plotting to forcefully prevent the peaceful transfer of presidential power, the longest term so far imposed over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
The former US Army paratrooper and Yale-educated lawyer, who founded the right-wing group in 2009, stayed outside the Capitol and took phone calls and messages while other Oath Keepers entered the building.
Prosecutors had sought a 25-year jail sentence, claiming he masterminded the plan that included "quick reaction force" teams at a Virginia hotel to convey weapons — which were never deployed — into Washington, D.C.
Democratic narrative
This tough sentence will hopefully have a chilling effect on far-right extremist groups, making it harder for them to recruit and raise money as the 2024 presidential election approaches. As the Justice Dept. has been successfully bringing those liable for the Capitol riot to justice, it's time to hold Donald Trump, who is the root of this problem, accountable as well.
Pro-Trump narrative
Like Trump, Rhodes has been persecuted as part of a political witch hunt. No Oath Keepers in Jan. 6 were armed or took part in any fighting, yet its leader was convicted by an obviously biased D.C. jury. Those who participated in the Jan. 6 riots are overcharged political pawns. This prosecution will surely backfire, however, serving only to boost distrust in government.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that the US will enter a second civil war before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.