UN: World Failing Civilians Caught in Conflicts
On Tuesday, UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, warned the Security Council that "the world is failing to live up to its commitments to protect civilians" as the UN recorded a 53% increase in civilian deaths last year compared to 2021, with nearly 17K civilian casualties recorded across 12 conflicts.
In his address to the Security Council, Guterres urged the Council members — citing civilian casualties in Ukraine and Sudan, schools destroyed in Ethiopia, and damage to water infrastructure in Syria — to fulfill their commitments documented in international humanitarian legal systems.
The UN chief insisted the Council states should help warring sides "engage in political dialogue and train forces on protecting civilians," adding weapon-exporting countries should "refuse to do business with any party that fails to comply with international humanitarian law."
Pro-establishment narrative
The international community must step up its efforts to prevent conflict, protect civilians, and preserve peace by finding political solutions to war. Civilians have suffered the deadly effects of armed conflict for too long — this report is a call for action to break the deadly cycle of armed conflict and hunger.
Establishment-critical narrative
While the UN Security Council promised to protect civilians in armed conflicts over two decades ago, most of its permanent members have played a part in aggravating civilian suffering — with some indiscriminately bombing hospitals, schools, and homes. Unfortunately, almost all permanent members continue to export arms to warring countries, aiding in war crimes and fueling the world's worst humanitarian crises.
Nerd narrative
There is a 22% chance there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: 50M Trapped in Modern Slavery
The Global Slavery Index 2023, released on Wednesday, reveals that in 2021, some 50M people worldwide were living in conditions that qualify as modern slavery — an increase of 10M over a five-year period.
About 28M of these people were affected by forced labor, and 22M were living in forced marriages, the report issued by the human rights charity Walk Free said, pointing to a worsening situation due to armed conflicts, environmental degradation, and COVID.
In addition to exploitative labor and forced marriage, modern slavery, according to the organization's definition, includes "debt bondage, forced commercial sexual exploitation, human trafficking, slavery-like practices, and the sale and exploitation of children."
Establishment-critical narrative
The current report is shameful proof that modern slavery isn't just a poor country issue but is also rampant in the world's richest economies. While consumers should shop responsibly, it's first and foremost up to governments, including in the West, to stop paying lip service and finally put in place the necessary policies and laws to protect the most vulnerable people from forced labor.
Pro-establishment narrative
For all the justified criticism the Index voices, it also notes that an increasing number of countries have introduced laws to combat modern slavery, forcing companies to audit their supply chains. In addition, 137 countries now criminalize human trafficking, and nearly 150 countries introduced action plans on modern slavery. There's still a lot of work to be done, but the international community is on the right track.
Narrative C
The report proves that solar panels have become one of the commodities most at risk of modern slavery. While there's no doubt that the climate crisis must be addressed, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy must not proceed at the expense of human rights, in this case, the rights of those at the bottom of the global supply chains for "green" energy products. Policies that ignore this problem aren't sustainable and have no future.
UK: Inflation Rate Falls but Concerns Remain
The UK’s Office for National Statistics has revealed that, as calculated by the consumer price index, the rate of annual inflation fell to 8.7% in April.
The level decreased by 1.4% from 10.1% and has largely been credited to the stabilization of energy prices. However, the rate remains higher than economists' predictions of 8.2% and the Bank of England's projection made two weeks ago.
Despite inflation rates falling to levels last seen in March 2022, food prices are still up 19%, year-over-year, which Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described as still "too high." Hunt met with food manufacturers on Tuesday this week to discuss measures to lower food costs.
Narrative A
A fall in the inflation rate is long overdue and will be welcomed by consumers. As food prices come down, albeit slowly, the UK will do well to avoid new regulatory burdens and limit the cost impact of new policies. What the government could do, however, is investigate whether the nation's largest grocers, as has been the case in the past, have artificially bumped up prices under the guise of the inflation crisis.
Narrative B
While the inflation rate slow-down is a sigh of relief, the reality is that "core inflation" — which strips away volatile sectors from the calculation — still rose in April. With food prices continuing to soar, pressure is bound to mount on the Bank of England as the UK still has a long way to go to lower inflation back to 2%. While the pain from interest rate hikes will continue, the Bank has a vital role to play until it achieves normal rates again.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK's annual inflation rate will be at least 6.83% by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Hush Money Trial Set for March 2024
Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan on Tuesday set a trial date of March 25 for the hush-money criminal case against former Pres. Trump, prompting the defendant to criticize the timing as "election interference" as it aligns with pivotal Republican primaries.
This comes a month after the former president pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsification of business records related to the $130K payment made by his then-lawyer Michael Cohen to Stormy Daniels.
Prosecutors and Trump's legal team will exchange documents and evidence in the coming months, with Aug. 29 being set for any new defense motions — including a motion to dismiss the case — and Oct. 10 for prosecution responses. Motions will be ruled on Jan. 4.
Democratic narrative
While it's not illegal to silence someone so as to protect your reputation and marriage, covering up the action by falsifying business records is a criminal offense. This case is a testament to the fact that no one is above the law, no matter how powerful they are. Alleged breaches of campaign finance law carried out by the Trump campaign also deserve to be taken seriously.
Pro-Trump narrative
It's no coincidence that the scheduled date coincides with GOP primaries. Donald Trump is a victim of a Democratic witch hunt to suppress his influence and reclaim the presidency. Democrats have successfully weaponized the criminal justice system, which is now focused on political vengeance and punishing a political opponent instead of keeping Americans safe.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DeSantis Launches 2024 Bid on Twitter
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Wednesday on the Twitter Spaces forum that he will be running for the Republican ticket for the 2024 US presidential election. The announcement experienced technical difficulties on the platform that immediately drew fire from GOP rival Donald Trump and US Pres. Joe Biden.
In DeSantis's launch video released earlier in the day, he said things such as "Crime infests our cities," "Righting the ship requires restoring sanity to our society," and argued that he "chose facts over fear, education over indoctrination, [and] law and order over rioting and disorder."
During his audio-only interview with co-hosts [and Silicon Valley icons] Elon Musk and David Sacks — which reached 600K-plus listeners after first enduring technical issues — DeSantis touted his resume of banning critical race theory in schools, his legal battle with Disney, and touched on issues such as fighting gun control.
Democratic narrative
The Twitter tech issue debacle sums up perfectly the disorganized nature of both the DeSantis campaign and the GOP race in general. The governor is trying to tout his culture war accomplishments while simultaneously seeking the approval of the Trump base, though it doesn't help that he polls better among college-educated voters than non-educated. As for distancing himself from Trump, DeSantis also promised to build the wall, a clear imitation of the former president. The GOP is still stuck between a rock and a Donald Trump.
Anti-Trump narrative
The most important question to ask when running for president is can you win the general election, and the answer is certainly in DeSantis' favor right now. Donald Trump may be leading in the primary polls, but only DeSantis has proven capable when it comes to defeating the incumbent Biden in swing states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. The GOP needs a big comeback win in 2024, and DeSantis is the shrewd, next-generation administrator to lead the party into the future.
Pro-Trump narrative
After months of "experts" claiming Trump could only win the primary, the tide seems to be shifting. Trump will undoubtedly crush DeSantis in the primary, but recent polls suggest he could even beat Biden by four points in the general election. This is because voters understand that, under Trump, the country was strong economically and from a security standpoint. We all know Biden only upholds the deep state and woke policies — the numbers also show rust belt voters are too unsure of rookie contender DeSantis to give him their full support.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Nearly 2K Children Abused by Catholic Church
An investigation released Tuesday by the Illinois attorney general's office found that nearly 2K children were abused by 451 Catholic clergy members between 1950 and 2019 in the state, more than previously reported.
This adds 149 previously unknown abusers to the lists of perpetrators, most of whom belong to religious orders independent of dioceses.
Before the investigation was launched in 2018, Catholic dioceses had only disclosed 103 abusers in the state. Attorney General Kwame Raoul stated it is his hope that the report will provide "public accounting" for survivors of abuse.
Narrative A
Thousands upon thousands of new victims of abuse come forward every year, first victimized by a depraved priest, and then again by an institution determined to protect abusers. The Catholic Church is in dire need of a transformation to root out abusive priests and those who covered for them. The faithful are forced to grapple with the immense scale and scope of abuse.
Narrative B
The Church stands with the victims of sexual violence and has devoted substantial efforts to rectify what has been done. Despite the progress already made, the media hounds one of the few institutions that treat child sexual abuse with such concern. Schools, sports teams, and other well-respected establishments are hotbeds for abuse, with no statistical evidence to support a singling out of the Catholic Church among other institutions.
OpenAI Leaders Call for Regulation
Co-founders of ChatGPT developer OpenAI, Greg Brockman and Ilya Sutskever, as well as CEO Sam Altman, have called for the regulation of "superintelligent" artificial intelligence (AI), specifically pointing to the need for a global body like the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In a statement posted to the company website, they said such a watchdog would need to "inspect systems, require audits, test for compliance with safety standards, (and) place restrictions on degrees of deployment and levels of security."
Following a Goldman Sachs estimate that AI could replace 300M jobs, the letter added that "it's conceivable that within the next 10 years, A.I. systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains, and carry out as much productive activity as one of today’s largest corporations."
Narrative A
While OpenAI's calls for regulation still remain quite vague, the fact that the world's leader in AI development is voicing such alarm is a positive sign. Altman and other AI developers certainly enjoy the power and profit that come from their companies, but, at the moment they're on the side of good, and lawmakers should team up with them before actual bad actors get their hands on these robotic threats to humanity.
Narrative B
AI executives like Sam Altman may seem like they're calling for ethical regulation of the industry, but in reality, they're playing sleight-of-hand games with politicians. The fact that the US government is taking advice from OpenAI, whose top investor is Microsoft, shows regulatory capture is likely coming for the AI industry. Once this happens, you can forget about market competition and holding Big Tech accountable, as these Silicon Valley executives will have a monopoly on both the technology and those hired to regulate it.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Recycling Plastic Can Increase Toxicity
According to a Greenpeace report published on Wednesday, recycling actually increases the toxicity of plastics and should not be considered a solution to the pollution crisis.
The report finds plastics often contain higher levels of toxic chemicals, including carcinogens and endocrine disruptors, among others, which can be transferred into the recycled product.
The report cites peer-reviewed research, international studies, and UN Environment Programme data, which shows 3.2K of the more than 13K chemicals contained in plastics are hazardous to human health. The paper suggests that “plastic poisons the circular economy and our bodies, and pollutes air, water, and food.”
Narrative A
The plastics industry will continue to put forward plastic recycling and recycled content as the best way to resolve the global plastic crisis, distracting attention from the need to reduce overall plastic production and shifting the burden of dealing with plastic waste onto the consumers. The only real solution to ending plastic pollution is to first cap and later end plastic production — the world needs the UN's plastics treaty.
Narrative B
No evidence suggests ingesting plastic particles poses a real public health risk. Instead of denying people access to clean drinking water, safe food supplies, medical and personal care products, disrupting global supply chains, or substituting plastics with materials with a much higher carbon footprint in critical applications, the global community must conduct more research to establish if plastics are a threat or if the benefits greatly outweigh the costs.
South Carolina Senate Passes 6-Week Abortion Ban
On Tuesday, the Republican-majority South Carolina Senate approved a bill to ban most abortions after approximately six weeks of pregnancy, restoring a 2021 ban that went into effect after SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade last year.
The earlier measure was ruled unconstitutional by the state Supreme Court. This revised bill includes exceptions in cases of rape, incest, and medical emergencies but otherwise bans abortions — currently legal up to 22 weeks — after fetal cardiac activity is detected.
The legislation passed the Senate in a vote of 27 to 19 after it was approved by 82 to 33 by the House last week.
Democratic narrative
South Carolina has become an important provider of abortions since neighboring states have adopted extremely strict bans. Now this bill, which is so extreme it’s even opposed by several Republicans, is going to make it near impossible to receive an abortion. The state Supreme Court should strike it down as it did to the similar ban in January.
Republican narrative
It’s time for South Carolina to stop being the abortion capital of the South. This bill brings the state in line with its neighbors in clamping down on the killing of unborn children. It also simultaneously contains the necessary exceptions to preserve the health and life of the mother, but has been rewritten just enough to get around any concerns over privacy rights.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Rock Icon Tina Turner Passes Away
Legendary singer Tina Turner passed away at 83 on Wednesday at her home in Küsnacht, Switzerland, according to her publicist Bernard Doherty. Though he didn't provide the cause, she had faced a number of health issues in recent years, including a stroke and kidney disease.
Turner was born Anna Mae Bullock in 1939 to sharecroppers near Nutbush, Tenn., where she said she "had food on the table" but no "fancy things." After her grandmother died in 1950, she and her sister Ruby moved to St. Louis, Mo., to live with her mother.
It was there that she began her career, performing with the band Kings of Rhythm, whose leader, Ike Turner, she later married. The band had a few hits, most notably "A Fool in Love," which reached No. 27 on the Billboard Hot 100 pop charts, though they never reached national fame.
Narrative A
While the world mourns the death of this truly exceptional American icon, we shouldn't forget the struggles she went through to reach — and maintain — stardom. Turner is a prime example of what celebrities often face behind the scenes; she was taken advantage of and pushed to perform, whether she was physically up to the task or not. Her life was a tragedy, and that fact shouldn't be brushed aside.
Narrative B
Although her struggles shouldn't be dismissed, they also shouldn't be allowed to overshadow her incredible talent. Tina Turner should be remembered as an icon on and off the stage, selling hundreds of millions of albums, starring in famous movies, and inspiring women through her feminism. It's time the public finally closes the chapter on her tragic past and commemorates her inspiring attributes.