NATO Launches Arctic Exercise, Pledges to Protect Finland
NATO countries launched military maneuvers in the Arctic this week as they vowed to defend Finland, which is hosting the joint exercises for the first time since joining the Western military organization in April.
The Arctic Challenge, held every two years since 2013, kicked off on Monday. About 3K military personnel and 150 aircraft from 12 NATO countries, as well as Sweden and Switzerland, are taking part in the exercise in Finland, Norway, and Sweden.
The live air exercise, which runs through June 9, is designed to improve the ability to perform safe and effective joint combat missions in large multinational air operations, according to the Finnish Army.
Pro-establishment narrative
Finland's accession to NATO, along with the current exercises, shows that countries in close proximity to Russia are seeking protection from Moscow's neo-imperialist expansionism. This development amounts to a major strategic and foreign policy defeat for the Kremlin which, instead of weakening NATO through its aggressive policies, has further strengthened the defense alliance. Finland's and, ultimately, Sweden's accession to NATO are direct results of Russia's unjustified invasion of Ukraine.
Establishment-critical narrative
NATO isn't promoting peace and stability in the Russian neighborhood, but militarism and the interests of the West's military-industrial complex. In fact, it's the Washington-led military bloc that is constantly expanding toward the Russian border, not the other way around. NATO is not a defensive alliance but an aggressive and militaristic organization. By abandoning their long-standing neutrality, Finland and Sweden are making themselves vassals of Washington and its geopolitical ambitions.
Narrative C
This current NATO maneuver points to the ongoing race for dominance in the Arctic, which has so far received little global media attention. The vast region boasts untapped oil and gas reserves, as well as large quantities of rare minerals, and climate change is creating profitable new trade routes. As Russia continues to expand its military presence in the Arctic, NATO is eager to catch up in this strategically important region in which China also has ambitions. These developments suggest that the Arctic is emerging as a new backdrop of great-power rivalry.
Nerd narrative
There's a 61% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ukraine Again Launches Strikes into Russia
In what was suspected of being a further Ukrainian drone attack inside Russian territory, a blaze was sparked at an oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region in the early hours of Wednesday. Regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev said the fire at the Afipsky oil refinery was contained to 100 meters sq. before being put out, adding that there were no reports of casualties from the attack.
A Ukrainian drone also reportedly struck the Ilskyi oil refinery in the neighboring Krasnodar Krai region, but was said not to have detonated. The debris reportedly caused minor damage and there were no reports of fire or injury.
Meanwhile, extensive rocket and artillery fire was reported in Russia's Belgorod region, with the area allegedly coming under fire upwards of 200 times in the past day. Local officials said at least one civilian was killed and two others were injured. Dozens of buildings were also said to be damaged.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine's attacks inside Russia are "shaping operations," designed to confuse and overwhelm the nation ahead of Ukraine's counteroffensive. This is standard military operating procedure and an essential element of launching a successful counterattack.
Pro-Russia narrative
Washington's clumsy denials about not supporting Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are laughable given how heavily involved it has been in Ukrainian planning. The US seems hellbent on escalating this conflict to a global, all-out war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US: Nuclear Experts Warn Against Weapons-Grade Uranium Reactor Test
In a letter published Tuesday, a group of former nuclear regulators urged the US Department of Energy (DOE) to re-think its Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) at the Idaho National Laboratory, which intends to use weapons-grade uranium for nuclear power research.
The experts say "the damage to national security could exceed any potential benefit" by encouraging other nations to increase their production of highly enriched uranium (HEU), going against a "decades-old" US policy against HEU proliferation.
In the 1950s and 60s, the US provided HEU for research reactors around the globe before reversing course in the 1970s. Since then, 99 of the 171 HEU research reactors have reportedly either switched to low-enriched fuel or shut down entirely, with five currently operating in the US.
Narrative A
Decades-old technology might hold the key to unleashing the full potential of nuclear power around the world, as molten chloride reactors could generate more electricity, be cheaper to produce, and be safer and more reliable than current reactors. The risks of the MCRE using highly-enriched uranium will be offset by the adoption of clean, safe, and economical nuclear power.
Narrative B
Dismal performance metrics have been the fruit of all prior molten chloride experiments, as there isn't a single material that can reliably withstand the highly corrosive and radioactive conditions inside the reactor. Energy agencies also doubt that one could ever be economical to deploy. The risks of nuclear proliferation for the sake of an all-but-doomed experiment are too grave to continue the MCRE.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 7.27% of the world's primary energy consumption will be produced by nuclear power in 2040, according to the Metaculus community prediction.
US Debt Ceiling Talks: First Hurdle Cleared, Tensions Remain
Despite some conservative opposition, the House Rules Committee voted 7-6 on Tuesday to send a bipartisan bill to raise the debt ceiling and limit government spending to the floor for a full House vote, which is expected Wednesday. The motion passed after Freedom Caucus member Thomas Massie joined six other Republicans to vote in favor.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Democratic Pres. Joe Biden agreed to the deal over the weekend, but members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus are reportedly planning to vote against it.
The bill, which freezes annual non-defense discretionary spending for two years and cuts $2.1T in domestic spending, might face pushback from progressive Democrats, too, as it expands work requirements for some aid programs, keeps the Trump-era tax cuts, and accelerates a natural gas pipeline project.
Democratic narrative
After weeks of coming together to offer Biden a debt ceiling negotiation starting point, the GOP has fallen back to its default position of divisiveness and disregard for diplomacy. Democrats, meanwhile, are proving themselves unified as they prepare to accept a bill that offers them some of the things they want and some of the things Republicans have asked for. Whether the GOP is playing performative games or not, it certainly has shown its willingness to create chaos even if it threatens the US economy.
Republican narrative
Democrats were certainly unified in this negotiation — unified in their choice to hide from the debate. This bill is a huge win for the GOP and every American who cares about fiscal responsibility. By capping domestic spending growth at 1% per year, Congress will reduce the deficit and actually spend less money next year than it did this year. It will cut unnecessary spending like the CDC's $400M Global Health Fund and simply ask welfare beneficiaries to work for their benefits. This is a pro-worker bill that both parties can and should applaud.
Progressive narrative
The Democrats in charge of this negotiation should not be celebrated. They have handed Republicans cuts to both life-saving welfare and IRS funding to target wealthy tax evaders. In another show of fake bipartisanship, the warmongering duo of Biden and McCarthy were both happy to ensure the military received a funding boost while regular Americans were stripped of their benefits. Biden could have ignored the GOP's economic hostage-taking and invoked the 14th Amendment, but that wouldn't get him the establishment brownie points he so heavily relies on.
Conservative narrative
Despite the media hype over this so-called unprecedented debt ceiling debate, McCarthy and Biden have been engaging in the same political posturing that every Congress has done in recent years. While they provide nice sound bites, the spending cuts achieved here still won't stop 21% of the budget from consisting of debt paybacks by 2053. Republicans know that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the real problems, but they are too busy kicking the can down the road to notice the country's impending economic doom.
US Criticizes PRC for South China Sea 'Maneuver'
The Pentagon on Tuesday accused China of an "unnecessarily aggressive maneuver" in aerial operations over the South China Sea, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressing a day later that this is the latest in a rising number of incidents involving Chinese military aircraft and ships.
Video footage per US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) shows a PRC J-16 fighter pilot flying close to the US Air Force RC-135. This prompted the American spy aircraft to navigate through turbulence generated by the PRC plane.
While the INDOPACOM reaffirmed that its reconnaissance aircraft was conducting "safe and routine operations" in international airspace, China claimed the plane "deliberately intruded" into its training zone.
Anti-China narrative
China's current shift to increasing its international power is occurring at the expense of the US. Washington must maintain its position in international politics, for the sake of ensuring PRC ideology does not become the global norm. The US must up its fight against Chinese aggression and continue to strengthen deterrents in the Indo-Pacific.
Pro-China narrative
Ahead of the important meeting of nations in Singapore, the US has once again deployed a commonly-used tactic of branding the Chinese interception of a US spy plane as unprofessional and dangerous. Washington's Cold War mindset against China — continuing provocative actions violating Chinese sovereignty — will continue to be met with necessary measures.
Nerd narrative
There's an 18% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Chris Christie to Announce 2024 Presidential Campaign
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will reportedly announce his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential candidacy next week during a town hall event at St. Anselm College on June 6.
Christie eventually endorsed former Pres. Donald Trump after dropping out of the primary in 2016. He then prepared Trump for the 2020 debates but has become a critic of the GOP frontrunner since Trump began denying the 2020 election results.
Members of Christie’s campaign team said he plans to offer the party "a happy warrior who speaks his mind, takes risks and is happy to punch Donald Trump in the nose," while aiming to run "a national race" and "non-traditional campaign."
Anti-Trump narrative
Christie is the Republican Party’s best hope to sell a message of hope rather than grievance to voters and derail the unpopular and criminally-charged Trump from claiming the nomination. Christie broke away from Trump over the latter’s lies about the 2020 election results, and anyone who denies the results of an election is a threat to democracy who should be kept out of the White House.
Pro-Trump narrative
Christie is becoming irrelevant to the Republican Party and US politics in general. Trump is the clear frontrunner with tepid resistance from those in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ camp. But no one is clamoring for Christie to join this race because this is Trump’s nomination, and no one is going to vote for a turncoat who doesn’t represent the party’s values.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DeSantis Campaigns in Iowa, Criticizes Biden and Trump
On Tuesday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appeared in Iowa for the first time since launching his bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 and raising $8.2M in the first 24 hours after his announcement last week.
DeSantis focused his speech on criticism of Pres. Biden’s handling of the southern border, the fentanyl crisis, the economy and national debt, energy, China, and vaccines. Although he didn’t mention former Pres. Trump by name, he emphasized his belief that he could beat Biden in a general election.
Throughout his hour-long speech, DeSantis said the US is “going in the wrong direction” and sold himself as “a disciplined, energetic president who will spit nails and fight the needed battles.”
Pro-Trump narrative
DeSantis is taking jabs at Trump’s unconventional style as a politician in a desperate attempt to make up a major deficit in the polls. When it comes down to it, though, DeSantis isn’t a serious enough person to take down Biden or save the US. DeSantis is just a puppet of the DC swamp. Trump is the only one that can orchestrate an American comeback.
Anti-Trump narrative
DeSantis is going on the offensive, which is what any challenger to the former president must do to move the Republican Party beyond Trumpism. So far, DeSantis has had a counterpunch for every Trump criticism, which could lead voters to see the light and realize that DeSantis’ policies and managerial skills would be better for the party and the country.
Democratic narrative
As the polling shows, the Republican Party has no intention of deserting Trump, and any glamorizing of DeSantis’s campaign is a product of the media needing a juicy race to report on. Every challenger of the past who attacked Trump fell by the wayside, and DeSantis — dangerous as he is — hasn’t proven that he’ll be any different nor that he can get as many votes as he can get headlines.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 25% chance that Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UAE Halts Participation in US-Led Maritime Coalition
Following a series of oil tanker seizures by Iranian naval forces in recent weeks, the UAE on Wednesday announced that it has stopped participating in a US-led coalition to protect Gulf shipping.
The UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the country effectively withdrew from the coalition two months ago, following an "ongoing evaluation of effective security cooperation."
The coalition, called the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), is a 34-nation task force headquartered at the US naval base in Bahrain. Its mission is to focus on maritime security issues in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf regions.
Pro-Iran narrative
The UAE's withdrawal from this US-led maritime coalition is another indication of the region moving away from American hegemony. Longtime allies have become exasperated by Washington's inability to take initiative, and the UAE has finally decided to follow many others in resuming and improving diplomatic relations with Iran.
Anti-Iran narrative
Tehran is currently heading towards its own hegemonic goals in the Middle East relatively unopposed, and it is now time for a new Western hardline strategy against the state. The US must now check Iran's growing confidence, rebuild ties with pro-Western states in the region, and no longer answer Iranian questions with anemic responses.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
China's CCP Warns of AI Risks
Following a meeting chaired by President and party leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday, China's ruling Communist Party has called for heightened national security measures while warning about the risks posed by advances in artificial intelligence (AI).
The first gathering of the National Security Commission under the 20th CCP Central Committee urged staunch efforts to enhance the security governance of internet data and AI, as well as the establishment of a risk monitoring and early warning system.
State news agency Xinhua reported that Xi demanded top Chinese security officials adhere to "bottom-line" and "worst-case-scenario thinking" to prepare for "stormy seas" ahead of perceived internal and external threats.
Anti-China narrative
The fact that Beijing has shown awareness of AI risks doesn't mean that the government will give up its ambition to outdo the US in such technology, but rather that it will force companies to be subservient while suppressing any information that potentially threatens the regime. Aside from the inevitable criminal use of AI tools in Xinjiang, China's low accountability for accidents is likely to produce an AI catastrophe.
Pro-China narrative
While China perceives AI as an empowering technology that contributes to a better future for humankind and the global good, it recognizes that it will bring with it safety and security challenges. It's exactly to reduce risks and maximize benefits that Beijing has been calling for international AI governance with shared responsibilities.
Nerd narrative
There's an 85% chance that Metaculus will predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
NASA Holds First Public Meeting on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
On Wednesday, NASA held its first public meeting since it launched a study into unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) a year ago. The team includes 16 scientists and experts.
NASA said the main objective of the four-hour session was to hold “final deliberations” before the panel issues a report in late July.
Sean Kirkpatrick, director of NASA’s All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office, described how the organization receives 50-100 reports of sightings each month, but he added that just 2-5% of the database can be characterized as “possibly really anomalous.”
Narrative A
Data is crucial to properly investigating these sightings, but it’s difficult to accumulate because of the stigma surrounding those who report unusual objects. Even pilots and military service members can face harassment, so instead they remain quiet. Having a public meeting and issuing this report should lead to people being more inclined to report anything unusual.
Narrative B
Although NASA and other organizations must accumulate enough data to conclude these unknown objects, it’s somewhat disconcerting that government organizations are considering using individuals’ cell phone data to further this cause. This could lead to a violation of privacy that shouldn’t be part of trying to explain the unexplained. This committee should proceed with public input — but without privacy violations.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be discovered within our solar system by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.