Anti-Trump narrative

Though several prominent Trump-skeptical Republicans have already endorsed the former president as if there were no alternative to him other than Joe Biden, Mike Pence has boldly offered a permission structure for Republicans whose endorsements are still up for grabs. There are mounting reasons not to back Trump — either for not being a real conservative or for being a threat to democracy.

Pro-Trump narrative

If Mike Pence had been a true Republican, as he claims to be, he would have endorsed Trump by now, as the former president has already clinched the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. This friendly fire from "Republican in Name Only" elites is the only thing that can prevent Trump from becoming the 47th president. Yet, even they know that another Biden term would threaten the very viability of the republic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be elected to be US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This historic deal proves Europe can take action in times of global disruption and tension amid the ongoing war in Gaza. This agreement recognizes the strategic importance of Egypt, which borders Gaza, and will help secure Europe's energy security while providing Cairo with much-needed financial assistance. Closer strategic ties will also help promote democracy, fundamental freedoms, and human rights.

Establishment-critical narrative

This deal proves how little the EU values democracy and human rights. The EU is willing to cooperate with North African authoritarian regimes — including Egypt and Tunisia — when it's concerned about access to energy and increased migration. By bolstering the el-Sisi regime with deals of this type, the EU is complicit in Cairo's ongoing human rights abuses.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that a military conflict between Egypt and Israel will cause 1K or more deaths before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

After years of denial, stalling, and fighting back by Uber, justice for taxi drivers has finally been served. This should be a lesson to any big firm seeking undeserved profits and to workers facing unfair competition — even the hardest battles can be won with unity and persistence against greed.

Narrative B

When Uber entered the scene, Australia's ride-hailing industry was overpriced and teeming with aging cars. The company brought a revival of sorts and completely modernized the industry with its new-age sensibility and technology. If what Uber did was illegal, it was because the law was anachronistic. The company cannot be blamed for being far ahead.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that self-driving taxis will be available in at least one large German city by March 30, 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Democratic allies of Eastern Asia have conducted non-provocative military drills in the region due to the North's decision to physically threaten its southern neighbor and Japan. Instead of engaging in diplomacy — an example of which is the current Democracy Summit in Seoul — Kim Jong Un has chosen to launch missiles into Japan's backyard. Not only is Kim's rhetoric inflammatory, but his actions are outright life-threatening.

Establishment-critical narrative

Those who believe Kim Jong Un wants war have excluded key details from their analyses. First, the language change in Pyongyang's Constitution matters little, given that the Kim regime continued its military programs before the change. Kim has also explicitly stated that he won't start a war but only respond to outside aggression. North Korea's recent escalation isn't erratic, as some would claim, but rather comes in response to the US and Soeul speaking of regime change.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Russia narrative

The way the world is going, it's not unforeseeable that Russia could be in conflict with NATO — a step that would be one removed from World War III. No one wants this scenario, and Russia remains open to respectful negotiations. In their absence, Russia will continue fighting for its independence and sovereignty.

Anti-Russia narrative

After Russia's so-called "elections" where nine out of 10 people are said to have voted for Putin, the autocrat is once again threatening the world with the prospect of global war, hoping to deter using bullying tactics of intimidation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 63% chance that one year after a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement is reached in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the Wikipedia article for it will state that neither side was the victor, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-Russia narrative

Putin's historic win in the Russian presidential election shows that the whole nation stands united with its leader, sending a strong message to the West — which has ferociously fought with Moscow — that the Russian president will always have his people's full support, whether in war or peace. The display of Russian unity is the best sign that all the speculation about illegal elections is actually ungrounded.

Anti-Russia narrative

This pseudo-election has neither been free and fair nor democratic. With the Kremlin tightly controlling Russia's media and political system, there was never a level playing field. Under an authoritarian ruler — who removed his real challengers from the political landscape through censorship, repression, and murder — Russians had no credible alternative than to vote in an illegal election and forcibly hand over the country's reins to a dictator.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that a post-Putin Russia will substantially democratize within five years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel is purposefully creating a famine in Gaza at a rate unprecedented in the post-WWII era. Israeli forces have been blocking food, water, and other necessities from entering Gaza since the war began, and have intensified those efforts to facilitate a horrific and dehumanizing situation for Palestinians, with people being forced to drink contaminated water and eat whatever they can find, including grass and moldy potatoes. This level of cruelty is simply unfathomable, and Israel must be held accountable for these atrocious crimes.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden admin. is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. The Biden admin. is committed to ensuring the safety and well-being of Palestinian civilians and is now taking its own steps to alleviate this dreadful situation.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden admin. needs to refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas is simply not interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. In contrast, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want, even going so far as to put its own soldiers at risk just to preserve this principle. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone else.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Palestinian Authority/Fatah will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

This deal is more proof the US intends to instigate a space war, as China will have no choice but to counter the proliferation of these satellites by moving facilities underground and developing similar technology. The world should be concerned that the US will not just use these satellites for military spying but will also use them to target civilian populations.

Anti-China narrative

China's rhetoric is disingenuous if it thinks the world doesn't know it too is working on its own spy satellite constellation. In fact, the US and all of its rivals are looking to modernize its intelligence collecting technology and use low-orbit spacecraft that can gather information faster and for longer periods of time.

Nerd narrative

There's a 12% chance that there will be a US-China war by Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's in this predicament because he lied about his wealth and success for decades, so it shouldn't be a surprise to him that insurance companies now see him as a loan risk. This is business karma for Trump, who should lose his skyscrapers and golf resorts as a penalty for fraudulent behavior.

Pro-Trump narrative

Even Trump's enemies must admit this was an absurd judgment that resulted from a judge making an unprecedented and arbitrary ruling as part of the political witch hunt against the former president. This judgment, and Trump's struggles to post bond, should be a warning to businesses considering investing in New York.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda plan is an inhumane piece of legislation that his government is looking to pass as a vanity project ahead of this year’s elections. If Sunak's goal was to create the most dehumanizing and inefficient plan to tackle asylum seekers, then he couldn't have done a better job. However, from a political perspective, he has failed. Sunak has made it clear that he doesn't care about migrants living in the UK and doesn't care if people's family members and friends are shipped to an unsafe place.

Right narrative

Tackling the migrant crisis in the UK is one of Britain's top priorities, however, Rishi Sunak has utterly failed his constituents by proposing a weak and wasteful plan that will do little to actually protect the nation. It's unfortunate that a Conservative prime minister has done so little to meaningfully address a migrant crisis, and it seems like Sunak is pushing legislation that he knows will fail. Conservative Brits know that the Tories are failing them, and it is time for a real UK-first movement to supplant the milquetoast Sunak regime.

Pro-establishment narrative

This bill has been a long-awaited solution to help stem a tide of unsustainable immigration to the UK. Even with revisions and legal challenges, deportations will start in the next two months with support from Rwanda.

Nerd narrative

There is a 96% chance that the UK will have a Labour government before June 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

It seems like the Supreme Court, even with its conservative majority, is poised to uphold the government's right to communicate with social media platforms regarding misinformation. Issues like COVID and election denialism proved to be extremely dangerous in recent years, and social media platforms made a priority of cracking down on such disinformation. The government has a clear national security interest in preventing lies from spreading online as conspiracy theories have provoked insurrections and medical disasters.

Republican narrative

There's no doubt the Biden administration used its power to coerce social media platforms into censoring speech it did not like, which is a clear violation of the 1st Amendment. The Democratic Party and big tech have been tied at the hip for years, and it's clear to see that the world's largest companies do the bidding of their friends in Washington. Conservatives have been silenced for simply questioning the efficacy of the COVID shot or asking how Biden received 81M votes, and the White House is responsible for this violation of free speech. SCOTUS must prevent the government from colluding with big tech.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide by July 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.