Narrative A

Haiti's criminal gangs and narcos thrive on illicit arms, often originating from Florida due to lax laws. Despite some busts, trafficking persists, destabilizing not only Haiti but also other nations. It would be unforgivable to ignore the proliferation of US-made firearms, which are enabling adversaries to arm themselves.

Narrative B

Nations like Haiti, with a history of violence and chronic lawlessness, must look inward before blaming their ills on others. Assigning blame to the US for gun smuggling is easy, but what about Haiti's own systems and checks? The US has poured in millions of dollars in aid for Haitians. The nation must fix its own problems.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance Haiti will not become an upper middle-income country by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

By sheltering opposition figures in its embassy, the far-right populist Javier Milei has sided with the US in its quest to interfere in the Venezuelan elections. After Washington's puppet Juan Guaidó failed, it's now Machado who is tasked with bringing about neoliberal regime change. It's not Maduro who is undermining democracy in Venezuela, but Washington's policy of meddling and sanctions, which is not aimed at the well-being of the Venezuelan people.

Pro-establishment narrative

Argentina's decision to grant protection to opposition leaders was justified and in line with international law. Emboldened by the easing of US sanctions, the Maduro regime launched a fresh campaign of arrests and harassment against opposition activists while driving his country to economic ruin. The socialist dictator wants only hand-picked rivals to run in the sham elections and the free world must remain on the side of the Venezuelan people and democracy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 65% chance, that the US will sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

A product of an international lobbying and public relations scheme, Saudi Arabia's appointment as chair of the CSW is both comically ironic and deeply concerning. Saudi Arabia has no right to hold any influence over such an important international body — it's a travesty that a country with such a poor domestic record has walked uncontested into leadership over the UN strategy concerning gender equality.

Narrative B

Saudi Arabia's first-ever appointment as chair of the world's leading committee on women's rights is a testament to the country's impressive progress towards equality. Saudi Arabia will continue to champion equality and empowerment for women, encouraging greater participation at all levels of society. Riyadh will lead this important posting with due diligence and conscientiousness.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Mohammed bin Salman will become the king of Saudi Arabia by November 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin starts his speech by claiming that he has no bad intentions against Western countries. Immediately contradicting himself, he then recklessly threatens those countries with attack, saying he would destroy NATO's F-16s aircraft — even if they were outside Ukraine.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has been consistent throughout the conflict that if F-16 fighter jets are delivered to Ukraine, they will have to be targeted and destroyed — as is the case with all other foreign-provided weaponry. Russia has also been consistent that if F-16s stage attacks from third countries, the bases in those countries would become legitimate military targets too.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Narrative A

The data in this study is important and women should use it as part of their decision-making process. But until scientists delve deeper into the causation, it appears the risks associated with progesterone are low. More research is needed before any definitive conclusions are drawn.

Narrative B

Unfortunately, hormone-based contraception — particularly the pill — was once lauded but it's turning out to cause more harm than predicted. The world must know how these synthetic hormone disruptors cause physical ailments like blood clots and mental issues like depression.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the global fertility rate in 2050 will be at least 1.8, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Bankman-Fried is not the villain prosecutors and the media eagerly depict him as. He's a misunderstood genius who created a brilliant company from the ground up. He should be allowed to rectify his mistakes — which did not amount to an intentional criminal act — rather than being sent to prison for an obscenely long time.

Pro-establishment narrative

Bankman-Fried should consider himself lucky his sentence isn't as long as the one he truly deserves. He intentionally and callously defrauded customers and investors of billions and continues to lie while showing no remorse. He'll now have a long time behind bars to reconsider his mistakes.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Cryptocurrency Miners will be considered "brokers" by the IRS by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

In his attempt to keep up with more ambitious regulatory goals in Europe, Pres. Biden has set the stage for the government to codify concrete laws. While the president's AI Bill of Rights and subsequent memos regarding transparency, safety, privacy, and human rights are a good start, Congress is the body that must pass legislation.

Republican narrative

Biden's AI agenda is likely being stalled because, per usual, it's chock-full of woke diversity and equity language. The White House doesn't care about protecting Americans from AI but rather uses AI to 'correct' so-called historical wrongs and make sure conservative ideas are suppressed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that after a (weak) Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is created, it will take at least 28.7 months for the first superintelligent AI to be created, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Lieberman leaves behind a long and accomplished but mixed legacy. Early-career accomplishments as a champion of progressive causes were completely wiped away by his late-life lurch to the right. He was steadfast in his support of the disastrous invasion and occupation of Iraq, and he nearly killed the Affordable Care Act. While he continued to caucus with Democrats as an independent, he too often aligned himself with Republicans on key issues to be remembered as any type of hero to the left.

Right narrative

Lieberman was a New Deal Democrat who was concerned with liberal social policies and civil rights, but he was willing to take unpopular stands in his party. Despite Democrats' intolerance of his support for the Iraq War, he held firm to his beliefs, knowing how crucial it was for the US to fight terrorism abroad. He endorsed Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential race and even had nice things to say about former Pres. Donald Trump — proving there can be a middle ground in US politics. He has an important political legacy.

Right narrative

DeSantis has secured a major win over Disney, vindicating his fight against the rogue, woke corporation. Disney thought it could disregard Florida legislation and create its own rules in opposition to state laws, but DeSantis stepped in and stopped it from expanding its private empire.

Left narrative

DeSantis and his cronies may be taking a victory lap, but there are still legal battles to be fought. The governor could still be held accountable for violating Disney's First Amendment rights. Disney is ready to coexist with the DeSantis administration if he upholds his end of the settlement.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Rubiales was caught red-handed sexually assaulting Hermoso, and he should be brought to justice. The Spanish government — with a high proportion of female legislators — is setting an example for how these cases should be handled.

Right narrative

The appropriate punishment in this case isn't the issue. The true problem is the Spanish government's recently passed laws — ironically passed in the name of equality — that have released sex offenders from prison. The Spanish people should ask if their government is applying the law equally.